Iran deal is a blow to the credibility of Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu's response on Tuesday morning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran's nuclear programme was hardly surprising.

The deal that he had spent years fighting, that had prompted him to sacrifice his government's relationship with Barack Obama's White House, was, he said, "a mistake of historic proportions" that "threatens Israel's security and the security of the entire world".

But the prime minister who normally projects a confident - some say arrogant - image, looked ashen-faced when he tried to explain to Israelis what had just happened.

Likud ministers were briefed to tell the media that if it had not been for Mr Netanyahu's efforts, there would have been no sanctions on Iran to begin with and the agreement would have been a lot worse.

Mr Netanyahu said he had been fighting the issue for 20 years. And yet it was hard to understand how this deal could have been any worse from his perspective. He himself detailed how the agreement would enable Iran to build a nuclear weapon - either by stealth over the next few years, or in ten to 15 years once the freeze period on advanced nuclear development is over; how it would gift the Iranians hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen funds, allowing it to triple transfers to Hizbollah and Hamas.

Mr Netanyahu has made the Iranian issue his chief crusade over the last six years, and his credibility has taken a blow.

Even though most of the opposition agrees that this is a "bad deal", some, like Yesh Atid Leader Yair Lapid, have been calling for his resignation. He probably will not lose his job over this but it has cast a shadow over his judgment, particularly the way he clashed with the Obama administration.

None of this will help him deal with a tiny and fractured coalition.

As far as the prime minister is concerned, this is not over. There is still a 60-day "review" period in the Senate during which the US administration will have to defend the agreement. Mr Obama has made it clear that he will veto any attempt to obstruct the deal.

Assuming that all the Republican senators vote against, Mr Netanyahu will still need 13 Democratic senators to join the opposition and deny their president his main foreign policy legacy. It promises to be an ugly battle in which the chances of success are slim.

For now, the US administration is making an effort to patch up relations. Next week Defence Secretary Ashton Carter will arrive in Israel (and Saudi Arabia) to discuss an expected package of new arms and other forms of cooperation aimed at boosting Israel's capabilities. None of this is likely to prevent another showdown between the two strategic allies.