This deal could be one of the most calamitous things to have happened in the Middle East for generations. While it slows Iran’s progress to the bomb temporarily, it establishes a deeply flawed system of verification and emboldens the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror — one that is openly committed to extinguishing the world’s only Jewish state.
It is therefore remarkable that many in the media have presented the Vienna deal as an historic peace agreement that promises to usher in a new era in international relations and diplomatic goodwill.
Only the photo-op and handshake on the White House lawn were missing. Indeed, much of the coverage from the British media would lead you to believe that there is only one man in the entire world who opposes this agreement: Israel’s obstinate Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. But supporters of Israel should also note that the leader of Israel’s centre left opposition, Isaac Herzog, has also passionately expressed his reservations about the deal.
Meanwhile, Israel is far from the only country in the region that is deeply wary of this deal. Saudi Arabia has warned that it will develp its own nuclear programme to counter that of Iran if the deal fails to deliver. A new nuclear arms race now looks set to take hold across one of the most volatile parts of the world.
Read: This agreement will stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
What happens next in the region was always going to depend on how these talks panned out. Having never been serious about the military option, it was incumbent upon the White House to come up with a fail-safe solution on the diplomatic front.
But that is not what we got. The deal legitimises Iran’s nuclear programme, at best keeping Iran a nuclear threshold state for ten to 15 years, and gives it unprecedented and indefinite sanctions relief in return for what is a temporary and limited agreement.
The Obama administration promised “anytime, anywhere” inspections. Instead, monitors will have to consult the Iranians for 24 days before getting access to crucial sites. Plenty of time to cover-up any dubious activities.
Even if inspectors can establish that Iran has cheated, we can expect to see yet more protracted debate about whether or not the breach is really serious and if so, what should be done. In such an event, Mr Obama has promised a sanctions “snap-back”. But it could take months to build an international consensus for re-implementing sanctions and months more for the sanctions to have an impact.
In the mean time, sanctions relief will improve the Iranian economy and strengthen the mullahs’ hold on Iran. The unfreezing of over $100 billion in assets will provide Iran with the funds to purchase new weapons. We can expect much of that weaponry to flow directly to Hizbollah and Iran’s other proxies, as well as to the Assad regime which will no doubt use them to continue murdering civilians.
The end of the arms embargo will also mean that Iran will gain access to new ballistic missile technology, allowing it to eventually acquire the kind of delivery system needed for a nuclear warhead. Moreover, the deal allows for no Plan B. Should it fall through a few years down the line, the world may find it itself without any options to prevent Iran from acquiring the most apocalyptic of weapons.
Tom Wilson is a Resident Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society
