Only Western pressure can avert a nuclear Iran or war

The decades-old quest to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran has reached its final chapter. The Islamist regime has illegally stockpiled enough enriched uranium to produce, within a couple of weeks, sufficient weapons-grade material for several atomic bombs. The world now faces two stark possibilities: a genocidal regime acquiring the ultimate weapons of mass destruction, or military action by the United States and/or Israel to stop it.

If the UK and the EU hope to avoid either scenario, they must now close ranks with Washington and Jerusalem to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. In the little time that is left, only crippling economic and diplomatic sanctions – backed by a credible military threat – may yet convince the regime to give up its programme.

US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz made clear that Iran must dismantle “all aspects of Iran’s programme. That’s the missiles, the weaponisation, the enrichment.”

This marks a major US policy shift. The original nuclear deal ignored missiles – the delivery systems for nuclear weapons – and merely sought to delay, rather than dismantle, the programme. This administration grasps the reality: with an Islamist regime, only total denuclearisation will do.

The president himself warned with characteristic bluntness: If Iran “[doesn’t] make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”

London and Brussels have two critical cards to play in this endgame to help reach a deal. First, they must finally designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as the terrorists they are. The IRGC are not just the regime’s shock troops but are deeply involved in the nuclear programme. They are also the regime’s supplier of critical weapons to Russia. Proscribing them is thus not just a diplomatic courtesy to Britain’s and Europe’s key allies; it’s long-overdue self-defence.

Moreover, Europe’s security services have for years documented IRGC terror plots here in the UK and across the continent, specifically targeting the Jewish community and Iranian dissidents. The failure to crack down on Iran’s state terrorism – fuelled by misguided hopes of “engagement” – is a dereliction of these governments’ most sacred duty: protecting their own citizens and those who have sought refuge from a brutal regime.

It is therefore no coincidence that Iranian dissidents, understanding the regime’s true nature, stand among the strongest supporters of the Jewish state and people. The brave Iranian voices featured on p4 offer a glimpse of what the Middle East could look like when (not if) the mullahs fall.

The second card Europe must play now is to reinstate all UN Security Council sanctions lifted in the context of the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The 2015 deal included a fail-safe allowing the original parties to the JCPOA – the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China – to unilaterally “snap back” the UN sanctions if Iran violated the deal. After Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal during his first term, the US supposedly lost this authority and its attempt to restore UN sanctions in 2020 was therefore rejected. Yet despite Iran’s flagrant nuclear violations, Britain, France and Germany have yet to act.

The snap-back option expires in October, so time is running out. Delaying action – or worse, letting it lapse – would be diplomatic malpractice from those claiming to champion diplomacy above all.

Iran has never been weaker. Its main proxies – Hezbollah and Hamas – are decimated. That London-trained ophthalmologist in Damascus has fled, leaving Iran without a foothold in Syria. The Houthis, the regime’s last significant terror force, face destruction. And Israel has already crippled Tehran’s air defences. Western action could now remove the world’s most pressing security threat: nuclear weapons in the hands of an apocalyptic theocracy. And perhaps, for the sake of everyone, the regime may finally collapse.