Overnight, Israeli warplanes attacked military sites in Iran, destroying two main categories of target: ballistic missile manufacturing sites and air defence batteries.

From a military point of view, Iran was humiliated. Tehran was unable to do anything about the attacks and the public awakes to plumes of smoke above the regime’s most sensitive sites across the country this morning.

Israel’s objective, of instating a deterrent, appears to have been achieved. It now has greater aerial freedom of movement across the Islamic Republic. Yet despite Iran’s military humiliation, Jerusalem provided it with an off-ramp, warning of the strikes in advance and allowing the regime to reopen its airspace quickly and downplay the attacks in the media.

The nuclear sites, and other key military infrastructure, are now more vulnerable but have not been obliterated. Most notably, there appear to have been no assassinations of regime leaders or strikes on oil facilities. (Though this may be a good time for Israel to push the button on its characteristic, pinpoint espionage operations inside Iran.)

This also allows Iran to climb down from further escalation, hide behind rhetoric that downplays the attacks and “take the L” without significant retaliation. Events are still unfolding, but right now, the threat of escalation does not seem high.

In addition to degrading Iran’s capacity for hitting Israel again, the destruction of the missile batteries was significant. Israel has rolled the pitch for future attacks, should they be necessary. Once again, this was, above all, a warning.

Last night represents a victory for the more doveish Israeli and American voices, showing Jerusalem’s desire to demonstrate its desire to work alongside the objectives of the international community. According to Axios, Israeli warned Tehran in advance of the attack in a message delivered through the Dutch foreign minister, among others.

“The Israelis made it clear to the Iranians in advance what they are going to attack in general and what they are not going to attack,” one source said.

Clearly, this was not a strike intended to cripple Iran. But make no mistake. The strength of the renewed deterrent resets the parameters for the conflict in the military sphere and sends a powerful warning.

Final thought: look out for the media presenting this as an outrageous Israeli escalation (when it was of course a very measured response) and hyping up the danger of an Iranian retaliation.

This morning, Israelis are not in the bomb shelters. The IDF has not issued new guidelines for civilians. Hamas is close to defeat, Hezbollah is in disarray and Iran is more vulnerable than ever.

Whether America is heading for a Trump or Harris White House, the world is waking up to the truth that Iran is starting to learn the hard way: the regime is outgunned, outsmarted and out of its depth. There’s only one winning side in this conflict.