Over 1000 days of political uncertainty later, it appears that Israel may finally be on course for a return to stable majority government. Israel’s longest-ever serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has broken Israel’s relentless election cycle which has gripped the country since Spring 2019.
Observers of Israeli politics have seen this show many times before and will be all too familiar with the potential ups and downs yet to come as final results are tallied and negotiations between parties drag on, but a clear route to Government is taking shape. The so-called Netanyahu-bloc could return as many as 65 seats – a considerable majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Many commentators predicted that voter turnout would drop as politics-weary Israelis returned to the ballot box for the fifth time in just four years. And yet, the number of Israelis voting actually increased, producing one of the largest turnouts in the last 20 years. Israel’s democratic tradition is alive and well. It is all the more remarkable when one considers that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is 17 years into his four-year term.
In these turbulent and uncertain times, it appears that Mr Netanyahu’s experience has appealed to many Israelis.
Benjamin Netanyahu is a political rarity. His political nous and ability to reinvent both himself and the fractious political landscape of Israel has been shown time and again. Proving his doubters wrong, he now looks set to re-enter the Prime Minister’s residence in Jerusalem.
His in-tray is unenviable. Iran is now a threshold nuclear weapons state. Hezbollah is in possession of the world’s largest non-state military with an estimated 150,000 rockets pointing towards Israel. Hamas remains in absolute control of Gaza and is quietly preparing for the next round of attacks on Israel. The Palestinian Authority has lost credibility among its own population and lost security control across much of the West Bank, leading to worsening violence and resurgent terror organisations. All this against a backdrop of domestic pressure over the rising cost-of-living in Israel – a phenomenon which has seen Tel Aviv rated the most expensive city in the world.
Despite these ominous challenges, in his previous term as Prime Minister, Mr Netanyahu oversaw the implementation of the Abraham Accords. Israel’s peace deals with its Arab neighbours were – and are – truly historic. They have transformed regional dynamics beyond comprehension. Mr Netanyahu will look to carry on where he left off.
Mr Netanyahu will also have to contend with the presence of some controversial political allies. The campaign was marred by some unacceptable, worrying rhetoric espoused by the firebrands of the Religious Zionism slate. At a jubilant Likud election party, Mr Netanyahu spoke of the need to form a national government that would look out for all of Israel’s citizens, and would adopt “judicious, balanced and responsible policies”. He also committed to turning the heat down on divisive rhetoric. These are welcome, and essential, pledges.
The disparate coalition which has governed Israel for a year shows that compromise is possible and the bloc’s return of an estimated 54 seats is a timely reminder of the importance of governing for all. Yair Lapid’s ‘economy for security’ plan has also shown a viable route to weaken Hamas and deserves more time for it to develop.
One thing is for certain, the UK-Israel relationship is set to be even stronger than ever. Mr Netanyahu has a deep affinity for the UK and our history – as those of us who witnessed him leading an impromptu tour around the Houses of Parliament earlier this year can attest. The UK-Israel free trade deal is an exciting prospect and will be a priority for the governments of both countries, along with addressing the increasing threat of Iran.
After a tumultuous political period for both of our countries, we should look at Mr Netanyahu’s re-election as an opportunity to renew and enhance our bilateral relationship with a fresh, forward-looking mindset.
