When Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from the government on Sunday, just hours before the release of the three hostages from Gaza, it was clear that the far-right politician’s decision was driven by more than ideology – it was also a strategic political move. By withdrawing after the hostage deal was approved amid a pause in the IDF’s offensive in Gaza, he was positioning himself as a rival to Benjamin Netanyahu from the right. In opposition, he has a platform from which to launch attacks on the government.
This marks a new challenge for Netanyahu, who until now has only had to contend with opposition from the left. Critics like Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid and Yair Golan have been easy for Likud to dismiss, as Netanyahu and his allies could paint them as leftists, a label that has stuck and is not overly popular, especially during a war. This strategy though will not work with Ben-Gvir, for obvious reasons. Moreover, the hostage deal with Hamas – with the release of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including many convicted murderers – gives Ben-Gvir ample ammunition with which not only to target Netanyahu but also to take aim at his primary rival, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who remains in the coalition.
Ben-Gvir’s resignation is a page out of Netanyahu’s own playbook. In 2005, he resigned as finance minister in Ariel Sharon’s government after the approval of the Gaza disengagement plan. Netanyahu, who had voted to approve the withdrawal, decided to resign just before the final vote in order to position himself as the true leader of the right. It took a few more years but in 2009, Netanyahu returned as prime minister, a role he has held almost ever since.
In addition to undermining Netanyahu from the right, Ben-Gvir’s resignation exposes other vulnerabilities within the government. With his party’s exit, the coalition now has a razor-thin majority with just 62 members. This gives each remaining party within the coalition leverage to bring down the government if their interests are not met. Smotrich, for instance, has already signalled that he will resign if the war does not resume after the 42-day ceasefire. Similarly, Netanyahu remains wary of Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar who, despite reneging on his earlier promise not to join Netanyahu’s coalition, still holds the potential to bring down the government. The coalition now finds itself at the mercy of each party. At any moment one could withdraw, triggering collapse.
Smotrich is pushing for the war to resume after the completion of the first phase of the deal, even at the cost of not securing the release of the remaining hostages. Meanwhile, the strictly Orthodox parties insist that a new IDF draft exemption law must be passed before the March deadline for the state budget’s approval. If the law is not passed, they have said they will not vote for the budget which would automatically trigger a new election.
Both of these challenges – appeasing Smotrich and satisfying the strictly Orthodox parties – will test Netanyahu’s political acumen. Smotrich’s push for the war to resume may conflict with potential pressure from former President Donald Trump, who is likely to advocate for an extension of the ceasefire and progress toward the second stage of the deal. Meanwhile, the strictly Orthodox demand for a new draft exemption law is already straining the coalition. If such a law is not passed, it is possible the strictly Orthodox parties will walk out.
Ben-Gvir’s return to the government is another possibility. He has indicated he may rejoin if the second stage of the hostage deal is not implemented. This could be an attractive option for Netanyahu. Despite Ben-Gvir’s past challenges to Netanyahu’s leadership, his presence in the coalition could stabilise it, preventing any one party from holding the power to dissolve the government.
However, Netanyahu could also opt to let the government fall on his own terms, particularly if an early election is inevitable. In such a scenario, he may want the issue that precipitates the collapse to be one that strengthens his position in a new election.
A crisis over the strictly Orthodox draft exemption law would not serve this purpose, as Netanyahu would likely be seen as betraying his voter base, many of whom serve in the IDF reserves. On the other hand, a showdown over whether to advance to the second phase of the hostage deal could work in Netanyahu’s favour. After the emotional return of Emily, Doron, and Romi on Sunday, there is little doubt that the public wants to see more hostages home and Bibib could gain public sympathy by championing their release.
Netanyahu has long been considered a political wizard but the next 40 days may prove to be among his toughest challenges. How he navigates this will be crucial, not only for the survival of his government but also for his political future.
