"Believe me, if I was a journalist or an ordinary civilian, I would totally be on Ukraine’s side,” said the cabinet minister. “But knowing what I do, I know that would be the wrong thing for Israel to do.” Versions of this conversation were being had across the Israeli government this week, as its leaders and diplomats walked a precarious high-wire between “the right side of history” and looking out for what they see as strategic interests.
“The Israeli public supports Ukraine, that’s clear,” said another senior Israeli official. “But the public isn’t aware of the rate of our attacks in Syria in coordination with Russia.” That remains the paramount and unarguable consideration – Israel’s “freedom to act” in Syrian airspace against Iranian and pro-Iranian targets.
In recent days, ministers have added a new justification for near-neutrality on the Ukraine war. “We may be in a position to actually help here by keeping channels open to both sides. Wouldn’t that be incredible, to be able to broker a peace deal between Russian and Urkaine?” But while President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed in favour, holding two phone calls with Naftali Bennett in the week since the war began, Vladimir Putin didn’t seem enthusiastic in the one call he had with Israel’s prime minister.
In the cabinet, there’s a clear division of labour. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid condemns Russia, in measured tones of course, and not too often. While Mr Bennett never mentions the R-word in public, he talks to the warring president, offers Ukraine “humanitarian” aid but no weapons, and makes sure that Mr Putin will have nothing to complain about. Is it sustainable?
The neutral stance has been noticed by western allies, but Israel doesn’t seem to be under any major pressure to get off the fence. On Tuesday, it voted at the UN to condemn Russia but for diplomatic balance, rather than Ambassador Gilad Erdan speaking, it was his deputy who gave a two-minute address. “The Americans wanted us to vote in favour. It would’ve looked bad if we hadn’t,” said an Israeli diplomat. “But our allies understand we have special conditions when it comes to Russia. Hundreds of thousands of Jews live there. We need to take them into consideration and we have Russia on our border in Syria.”
Israel’s leaders trod carefully around Mr Putin long before he sent his forces into Syria in 2015. The policy of never crossing him goes back to 2008, when he met President Shimon Peres at the Olympic opening ceremony in Beijing. Mr Putin took him aside for a quiet word. “Get your people out of Georgia,” warned.
A week later, Russian tanks invaded Georgia in Mr Putin’s first campaign against a former Soviet republic.
The Israeli military advisors who trained Georgia’s army and helped them use Israeli drones were already back in Israel. That was the last time Israel allowed the sale of any military knowhow to a country deemed as an enemy by Mr Putin.
He has met five Israeli prime ministers in his two decades in office. “The only Israeli leader who dared cross Putin was Ariel Sharon,” says an Israeli intelligence official. “Sharon would take [Mossad chief] Meir Dagan with him. Putin, as a former spy and KGB officer, was in awe of both of them. But since Sharon, it’s been the other way around: Israelis in awe of Putin.”
In Binyamin Netanyahu’s long term in office, he tried to make a big deal out of their “special relationship”. In 2015, he reached a deal with Mr Putin that Israel would not attack Bashar al-Assad’s regime; in return, Israel would be free to continue striking Iranians in Syria. The deal has worked and is still in place, but some Israeli diplomats are concerned that Israel has been made to look subservient to the Russian leader.
In 2018, Mr Netanyahu was Mr Putin’s guest at the May Victory Day parade in Moscow. He wore the orange-and-black St. George ribbon, widely seen as a symbol of Russian nationalism. The next year, Mr Netanyahu used photos of the Russian president and himself as part of his election campaign, aimed at showing Israelis the close relationships he has with world leaders.
Mr Netanyahu is out of office, yet the relationship with Putin is unchanged.
There’s no lack of Putin experts in Israel. The cabinet has two veteran ministers who are fluent Russian-speakers and have spent time with him. Yet still the Israeli government was surprised on Thursday morning when news arrived of the invasion. Avigdor Lieberman, the finance minister and Israel’s most prominent “Russian” politician, (though he was actually born in Kishinev, capital of Moldova), had said a week earlier in cabinet that “aliens would land before Putin invades Ukraine”.
Housing Minister Zeev Elkin, who has served as translator both for Mr Netanyahu and Mr Bennett in their meetings, was also sceptical.
“Lieberman and Elkin still see Putin as a product of the Soviet Union,” says a much younger Israeli Russia-watcher, who has spent considerable time in Russia in recent years as a representative of an Israeli agency. “Back in the USSR, decisions were made slowly and rationally by the Politburo. They’ve failed to grasp that Putin is no longer a Soviet creature. He sees himself as the embodiment of the Tsars, and makes capricious decisions on his own.
The main victim now is Ukraine, but if we don’t adjust our thinking soon, it’s Israel that could also be on the receiving end.”
