ByRobert Philpot, Robert Philpot
2 min read
This weekend, the Conservatives will gather in Birmingham knowing that David Cameron has just seven months until he has his second, and surely final, shot at securing the parliamentary majority which eluded him four years ago.
As it has on previous occasions, the "Jewish vote" - which swung to Margaret Thatcher in 1979 and then to Tony Blair in 1997 - will prove an excellent barometer of which party has captured the centre-ground on which general elections are won and lost.
Cameron's tenuous and partial hold on this territory both explains why he fell short in 2010 and defines the battle-lines next May.
To secure their first parliamentary majority in 22 years, the Conservatives will have to hold a series of seats with a comparatively sizeable Jewish presence: Hendon, Hove, and Harrow East, which they won in 2010 with small majorities of under 3,500, as well as Ilford North and Finchley and Golders Green, where their majorities are rather more comfortable.
But the Conservatives' plan to secure a majority also relies on them seizing marginals like Hampstead and Kilburn and Harrow West from Labour. Again, Jewish votes could make the difference between victory or defeat.
Polls published by the Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft during the summer provide a snapshot of the party's progress. In Hendon, the number three seat on Ed Miliband's target list, Labour had a clear 15-point lead.
However, there are some grounds for Tory optimism. Not only did Ashcroft find rising optimism on the economy but a similar proportion of voters, around 60 per cent, saying that they were either satisfied with Cameron's performance as prime minister or dissatisfied but still preferred to see him rather than Miliband in No 10.
Hampstead and Kilburn - the Tories' number five target seat - showed a Labour lead of 17 per cent, but economic optimism was high and a majority preferred a Cameron to a Miliband premiership.
These polls will, however, not have captured the impact of what Tory observers term Miliband's "abandonment" of Israel this summer which, they believe, will continue to reverberate next May.
Tight races, like in Hendon, they suggest, may well turn on the issue. There, Labour challenger Andrew Dismore may be "good on Israel but his party is not", said a Hendon voter.
But while Cameron's support for Israel may help his party on polling day, over the longer term that may shift. Paul Goodman, the editor of Conservative Home website, noted last month that while Britain's Muslim population is currently concentrated in safe Labour seats, like other minority groups, it is beginning to move from urban to suburban areas. Some Conservative MPs experienced Muslim anger over Cameron's pro-Israel stance in their in-boxes this summer. The Tory backbenches may not be abandoning their support, says one Conservative, but warns: "Demographics are making it more difficult to be a friend of Israel."