What next for AOC?

Questions about Joe Biden’s age and mediocre ratings among Democrats have led to growing speculation about who might be the party’s standard-bearer if the president chooses not to seek a second term. The Washington Post’s regular review of potential candidates ranked Ms Ocasio-Cortez in 10th place noting that “she would have a built-in base, and the progressive lane will be significantly more open this time” as Senator Bernie Sanders is not expected to make another bid.

If she threw her hat in, Ms Ocasio-Cortez, who will only turn 35 – the minimum age to be inaugurated president – during the 2024 campaign’s closing days, would, however, face a tough contest. Among the other contenders in The Post’s top 10 are Vice President Kamala Harris, transport secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, as well as California governor Gavin Newsom.

Political caution might instead lead AOC to attempt a more gentle step from the House to the Senate – a smaller, more prestigious institution – by challenging the reportedly vulnerable New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand for the Democrat candidacy in 2024.

Traditionally, those aiming for higher office in the US – whether they’re planning a bid for the presidency or a state-wide contest for the Senate or governor – tack to the centre to broaden their appeal, while also seeking the endorsement of their colleagues in elected office.

But playing by the traditional political rule book isn’t AOC’s style.

Ms Ocasio-Cortez – who combines political star power and huge fundraising abilities with a left-wing domestic and foreign policy agenda – is backed by the Democratic Socialists of America and shares its largely hostile attitude towards Israel.

She recently, for instance, joined fellow DSA-backed “Squad” members in introducing a Congressional resolution that would see the US recognize the “Nakba” – the Palestinian term for the “catastrophe” which accompanied the establishment of the State of Israel – and back the “right of return”. The resolution is unlikely to gain legislative traction but underlines the Squad’s strategy of using provocative gestures to highlight their agenda.

Such a stance might once have been politically problematic in both the Democrat and Republican parties. But Ms Ocasio-Cortez will be well aware that, as new research last week once again demonstrates, young voters, a key Democrat constituency, and indeed supporters of the party more widely, are becoming less staunchly pro-Israel.

Nor does Ms Ocasio-Cortez appear unduly concerned with currying favour among her colleagues. Unusually, she regularly backs primary challengers to her incumbent colleagues.

Earlier this month, for instance, she once again endorsed Nina Turner, the co-chair of Mr Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, in her ultimately unsuccessful bid to unseat the moderate, pro-Israeli Ohio congresswoman Shontel Brown. Thanks to strong support from Cleveland’s Jewish community, Ms Brown last August pulled off an upset victory over the left-winger in a special election.

Ms Ocasio-Cortez and her allies in the hard-left Justice Democrats had better luck in the Pennsylvania primaries two weeks ago where in an – albeit – open seat covering Pittsburgh they helped Summer Lee defeat Steve Irwin. Nonetheless, strong backing from Jewish voters in the suburbs, and a $2.7m barrage of attack ads launched by the pro-Israel United Democracy Project group, helped Mr Irwin to hold summer Ms Lee to a virtual draw, overcoming a 25-point deficit just a few weeks ago.

Another test for AOC and the Squad – an effort to topple veteran Texas Congressman Henry Cuellar last week – still hangs in the balance. In the first round of the primary elections in March, 28-year-old Jessica Cisneros came within a whisker of besting Mr Cuellar, who has received backing from pro-Israel groups and is the co-founder of the Congressional Caucus for the Advancement of Torah Values to combat “anti-Israel bigotry”. After voters went back to the polls last week, the pair remained locked in a tight race, with Mr Cuellar less than 200 votes ahead.

Ms Ocasio-Cortez certainly appears to get under the skin of some of her fellow Democrats. When she came to San Antonio to campaign for the challenger in March, Mr Cuellar sniffily declared: “The voters will decide this election, not far-left celebrities.” Closer to home, AOC appears locked in a feud with New York’s moderate mayor, Eric Adams, who responded to criticism from the congresswoman and her supporters with withering sarcasm. “I know they’re perfect, and there’s not much I can do about that,” the mayor said. “I can only aspire one day to be as perfect as they are.”

While Ms Ocasio-Cortez has claimed relatively few political scalps, among them have been some high-profile figures. In 2020, for instance, her support helped Jamaal Bowman oust Jewish New Yorker Eliot Engel, the then-chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

It is testament to Ms Ocasio-Cortez’s giant-slayer reputation that last year Congressman Hakeem Jeffries – who many observers view as a potential successor to Speaker Nancy Pelosi – launched Team Blue, a fundraising body designed to bolster vulnerable incumbent Democrats in safe seats against hard-left primary challengers.

But Ms Ocasio-Cortez’s candidates don’t necessarily have to win to have an impact; their very presence and the potential electoral threat they pose to moderates can help push both the debate and fellow candidates to the left.

Indeed, months of speculation that Ms Ocasio-Cortez might herself challenge Chuck Schumer this summer for the Democrat nomination for New York’s other Senate seat saw the Majority Leader engage in a defensive operation to shore up support on the left. AOC might have decided to sit the race out this time but Schumer, the most senior Jewish politician in Washington, took up a number of causes dear to her heart, including a plan to cancel student debt.

Despite her youth, Ms Ocasio-Cortez is no political naïf. As Dan Sena, a Democratic consultant in Washington, argued to the New York Times earlier this month, she is highly skilled at defining both her positions and those of her opponents. “She is always, always, always on message,” he said, adding: “She does a very good job of always creating a bad guy.”

In America’s toxic and polarised political culture, such a talent can take an ambitious young politico far.