Trump has handed Bibi free rein on Gaza – he now needs to figure out a strategy

US President Donald Trump has conveyed a clear message to Israel. “You do whatever you want,” he says he told Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This is a shift from the messaging during the Biden administration and for Israel’s governing coalition this appears to be welcome news. However, the complete support that Israel is now getting from the White House will now require Israel to come up with a plan regarding Gaza.

When Israel faced pushback from the Biden administration during the first year of the Gaza war, Jerusalem could often claim that its lack of a clear strategy in Gaza was due to challenges it faced in dealing with the White House on policy goals for Gaza. Israeli leaders and officials often speak of “never again” as part of Israel’s mission. After October 7, the Jewish people deserve an Israeli strategy for Gaza that prevents threats and also lays out a clear vision for the future.

The ground is shifting in Gaza. As Hamas returns the hostages slowly it also uses this opportunity to return to rule over Gaza. The IDF has withdrawn from key areas, such as the Netzarim corridor that separates Gaza city from central Gaza. On February 17, the IDF’s 162nd Division transferred control of a security zone in northern Gaza to the IDF’s 252nd Division. The handover is symbolic. The 162nd has often been the tip of the spear for the IDF’s battles in Gaza since ground operations began against Hamas on October 27, 2023, 20 days days after the Hamas massacre. “Since the beginning of the IDF’s ground operations in Gaza on October 27, 2023, the division has operated continuously for 15 months, achieving significant successes across the entire Gaza Strip,” the IDF said.

The IDF’s battles in Gaza, embodied by the role of the 162nd in so many key fights, were tactical victories but lacked a clear strategy.

Unlike some wars of the past when armies would push slowly forward over a large front defeating an enemy, as the Allies did against the Nazis in the Second World War, in Gaza there was no moment where the IDF flew the Star of David over the Hamas equivalent of the Reichstag, even assuming such a thing exists. Instead Hamas returned and it is Hamas that has been putting up banners in Gaza claiming victory.

As Hamas declares victory there is talk in Israel of returning to fighting Hamas. There is also talk in Ramallah about the Palestinian Authority running Gaza if Hamas will steps down from power. Meanwhile, Trump has said that most of Gaza resembles a demolition site due to the war and it would be best if many Gazans could move elsewhere while the place is rebuilt. Trump’s plan envisions Israel handing over Gaza, but the plan is short on details of how this might happen. Does Israel have the wherewithal to send tens of thousands of soldiers back into Gaza, whole divisions such as the 162^nd, to clear Hamas out again? In some places in Gaza Hamas has been cleared three times, and returned three times since October 2023.

Netanyahu has made clear what his vision does not include. “Just as I have committed to, on the day after the war in Gaza, there will be neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority. I am committed to US President Trump’s plan for the creation of a different Gaza,” he said on February 17. He told the Conference of Major American Jewish Organisations on February 16: “We haven’t finished the job, we will. Israel will destroy Hamas’ military and governing capabilities. Gaza will look differently.”

He also said that “President Trump has presented a bold new vision and the only plan that I think can work to enable a different future for the people of Gaza, for the people of Israel, for the surrounding areas”. This would appear to mean Israel will not enable or encourage people to leave Gaza. Netanyahu said: “If they want to emigrate, it’s their choice. And I think President Trump’s plan is right on the dot.”

Israel may have laid down some goals in Gaza, but the goals require a clarity of vision that has been lacking. For instance, when the war began Israeli leaders and officials said that “Hamas is ISIS”. However, the war in Gaza lacked the clear goals that led to the defeat of Islamic State. I covered the Gaza war inside Gaza with the IDF and I also covered the war on IS during the important battle of Mosul in Iraq.

ISIS and Hamas have similarities in their vicious ideology and their genocidal methods.

However, the defeat of IS in Mosul was completed by the Iraqis over a ten- month period and today Mosul is a peaceful city. Mosul was partly in ruins back in 2017 when the war on IS there had ended, but a clear vision by Iraq led to its revival. Can Gaza end up like Mosul? It could. But it requires a clear plan and vision.

The Trump administration has put the ball in Israel’s court. Unlike in the first months of 2024 when the Biden administration warned Israel against going into Rafah and there was pressure on Israel to reduce combat operations to a minimum during Ramadan and then wait for the White House to deploy an ill-conceived temporary pier in Gaza, today Trump is telling Israel to do whatever it wants. The challenge for Israel now is to come up with a plan. If the IDF goes back into Gaza, will it go in and stay? Who will govern the Gazan civilians. Israel’s leaders say they don’t want Hamas or the Palestinian Authority. Nature abhors a vacuum. Some civil authority has to exist. We’ve all seen what happens when weak states collapse or civil administrations are introduced that cannot withstand various enemies. The Taliban returned to run Afghanistan, for instance. Without a clear vision Gaza will be a quagmire, sucking in time and resources of Israel. Israel has prided itself on being a start-up nation and an island of democracy and freedom in a region that often has extremism and totalitarianism. However, a long conflict in Gaza without a vision is not in the interest of any modern democracy seeking to thrive. Compare and contrast how the new government in Syria is seeking to unify the country and rebuild war-torn cities and reach out to countries around the world with productive meetings; and compare that to Jerusalem’s Gaza policy.

The Middle East is changing. Countries want peace. They don’t want frozen conflicts and ungoverned areas that spread extremism and chaos. Gaza spreads extremism and chaos. Removing Hamas requires a vision for the future so that it doesn’t become a source of endless disasters for Israel in the future.