Israeli elections are long, exhausting, and often influenced by what former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan reportedly most feared: events.
During the previous two election cycles in 2013 and 2015, Israel experienced several events that may sound familiar: a well-known figure starting a new party, mergers between several existing parties, the indictment of a senior Israeli politician for fraud, and a major flare-up in the Palestinian arena.
With 45 days left to go till the 2019 election, there will undoubtedly be many more twists and turns. Boring it won’t be.
Back in December, BICOM’s 2019 Annual Forecast identified four potential wildcards that could significantly alter the direction of the election and consistent projections predicting Netanyahu and his Likud party would win handily.
The popular former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz's entry into the race was one such twist.
Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit’s provisional decision to indict the Prime Minister — pending a hearing — on a series of corruption charges in three separate cases was another.
The latter announcement itself is legally meaningless: Netanyahu can stay on as PM, and while politically it will cause a stir, the legal process will run on for years. But it will be the equivalent of a pistol hung on the wall in an early act of a Chekov play.
It will go off in a later act. It may well be deadly.
Another potential twist is the far less metaphorical explosion in the Palestinian arena.
The Israeli public considers the security situation to be stable, yet Gaza and its crumbling infrastructure continues to pose dangers, as do tensions of the status quo at the Temple Mount and Israel’s decision to freeze the transfer of some tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority.
Mr Netanyahu’s carefully crafted “Mr Security” credentials could be undermined if any of these issues spiral out of control.
A final wildcard is Donald Trump’s much-hyped “Deal of the Century”, now due to be rolled out after the elections.
Much ink has been spilled on a plan most know little about but one thing is clear: its details will be completely unacceptable to the vast majority of Likud and its potential coalition partners. Ironically, Mr Netanyahu’s saviour in the Houdini-like escape act will likely be Mahmoud Abbas, who will reject the plan first.
During his long and turbulent political career, Mr Netanyahu has become an expert at extricating himself from tight spots, but squaring the circle between disappointing Mr Trump and losing his right-wing base, exactly at the moment he needs them most, will be a gargantuan challenge.
Mr Netanyahu’s ability to keep the security situation stable and defeat Yair Lapid and three former Chiefs of Staff, while dancing between the raindrops of his right-wing partners and Trump, only to then have to outwit the Attorney General may ultimately prove too much even for him.
He may win these elections, but that’s where the bigger challenges will begin.
Calev Ben-Dor is Bicom’s Head of Research
