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Gallup’s new poll headline blared: “Less than half in US now sympathetic to Israelis.” That’s worth unpacking.
Since 2001, Gallup has asked American adults annually, “In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?” In this year’s poll, run February 3-16, 46 per cent of Americans chose Israelis. Gallup reported that “is the lowest in 25 years of Gallup’s annual tracking of this measure on its World Affairs survey.” Meanwhile, sympathy for Palestinians now stands at a record high of 33 per cent among American adults.
So, is Gallup’s poll sound? Michael Cohen, lecturer in political communication at Johns Hopkins University, told me, “Yes, absolutely,” noting that “Gallup has asked the same question for 25 years. That trend is powerful and real.”
Jay Greene, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, expressed concerns about phrasing, though: “Poll results are very sensitive to question wording,” said Greene, and “the Gallup poll question on Israel/Palestine is ambiguously worded.
"The problem is that asking people about who they are more sympathetic with could mean ‘support’ or it could mean ‘feel bad for,’” he explained. “The Palestinians have badly lost, had the territory of Gaza destroyed, and have had tens of thousands of casualties. One could be sympathetic to them given their pathetic situation without supporting them.”
The timing of controversial news stories might also influence results. For example, Gallup’s report mentioned that “Trump expressed his intent for the US to own and redevelop the Gaza Strip” the day after their survey opened.
There were also major stories that were still unknown when the poll was taken. Sandra Parker, Chairwoman of the CUFI (Christians United For Israel) Action Fund, observed, “I notice the poll was taken before the world knew the Bibas babies were strangled to death and stoned post-mortem. One would hope the respondents would like to amend their answers now.”
Any amenders would likely be Republicans or independents, given Gallup’s findings: “Republicans broadly sympathise with the Israelis (75 per cent) over the Palestinians (10 per cent), while Democrats sympathise with the Palestinians over the Israelis by a nearly 3-to-1 ratio (59 per cent vs. 21per cent). Independents’ sympathies are similar to the national averages.”
Gallup’s data showed that regardless of political affiliation, Americans favoured Israelis in these annual polls until Democrats broke for the Palestinians in 2023. Strikingly, “Democrats’ sympathy for the Palestinian people had dipped six points” last February, but this year, “Democrats’ sympathy for the Palestinians is up 16 points, marking the first time it has reached the majority level.”
Cohen commented, ”The polls showing that Democrats have dumped Israel are solid. It’s impossible to put your thumb on the scale when the trend is that obvious."
Multiple factors fuel that trend. Among them, many schools and universities are now accused of inculcating hostility to Israel. Traditional media and new media further amplify those views. And collectively, these forces shape public opinion, especially among younger adults.
“Support for Israel should not be a partisan issue, and yet this poll shows that it has become just that,” Luke Moon, executive director of the Philos Project, told me. “This is terrible news for Israel, since politics increasing leave very little room for moderation. It will strain the relationship between Israel and [many] American Jews, who will be forced to choose between their support for Israel and their support for the Democratic Party.”
Support for Israel has clearly cratered on the Left, and efforts to erode it on the Right have become increasingly visible on X and assorted podcasts. The question then is how Israel’s American friends should respond.
Sarah Stern, founder and president of the Endowment for Middle East Truth, suggested, "We need to reach out to our friends that are leaning that way, invite them to our Shabbat tables, and try to engage them in non-confrontational, friendly discussions. I think it all depends on forming positive relationships, one at a time.”
However, Stern added, “Our very first priority should be reaching out to young American Jews, who are right now, feeling threatened and under attack. They might have a visceral feeling of identity. They are feeling besieged and now might be the best time to educate them about our history and our roots, before we lose them.”
Millennials and Gen Z should absolutely be the focus of attention, both inside and outside the Jewish community. If bipartisan support for Israel is ever to be truly revived, those are the adults who must be persuaded that Israelis deserve American solidarity and support.
