Opinion
Killing of Sinwar is huge achievement but no magic wand
The death of the Hamas leader is no guarantee that the war will end
October 17, 2024 17:15
3 min read
The death of the Hamas leader is no guarantee that the war will end
October 17, 2024 17:15The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a clash in Gaza on October 17 comes as a major surprise to Hamas and Israel. He was killed by Israeli troops, on a routine patrol in Rafah, who were clearing a booby-trapped building. Israel had been hunting Sinwar since the October 7 massacre and for most of the last year Sinwar was described as a “dead man walking.” However, until today, Sinwar had eluded Israel’s attempts to find and neutralise him and repeatedly described as hiding in a tunnel surrounded by hostages.
Now is the time to remove the concept of Hamas being an “idea” that cannot be defeated. Hamas is a genocidal organization that was run by a mafia-like figure who transformed Hamas into the genocidal group that carried out October 7.
However, Sinwar’s elimination now gives Israel an opportunity to fully defeat the group. This will not be easy. Hamas has operators in Qatar and Lebanon and Turkey and has powerful backing in Iran. It also likely enjoys some tacit support from Russia and even China. To defeat Hamas on the ground means removing Hamas’ appeal to Palestinians. But, Hamas as an ”idea” can be defeated. This idea has brought ruin to Gaza and the deaths of thousands. It has brought nothing but pain to both Israel and Palestinians.
The death of Sinwar is a major accomplishment in the war against Hamas. His elimination was the last in a series of targeted strikes against terror leadership in both Gaza and Lebanon.
Earlier this year, Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, Mohammed Deif was killed in July, Marwan Issa, another key Hamas leader, was killed in March and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in September. The death of Sinwar leaves Hamas with very few leaders in Gaza. Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of Yahya, is apparently still alive. Otherwise, Hamas probably has a few battalion and brigade commanders, most of them replacements for commanders killed earlier in the war.
The death of Sinwar is an important achievement for the IDF and Israel. However, in the past, Israel has eliminated Hamas leaders and seen Hamas regrow its leadership. Every leader of Hamas that has been assassinated has seen a replacement even more hellbent on Israel’s destruction.
Sinwar was key to this recovery after the assassination of Sheik Yassin in 2004. Born in 1962 in Khan Younis, Sinwar was one of the key figures in Hamas from its founding in the 1980s. He was sentenced to prison in Israel but not before he had the chance to kill Palestinians in Gaza and help Hamas become the brutal terror group it became. Released in a prisoner deal in 2011 he quickly rose to power as other Hamas leaders moved to Doha where they lived in a gilded cage, backed by Qatar. Sinwar helped turn Hamas into a terror behemoth, replete with masses of rockets and cadres of young men ready to fight Israel. He largely failed in his early years to secure victory. However, since 2018 he honed his abilities and transformed Hamas into the group that was able to surprise Israel on October 7.
This time may be different. Hamas doesn’t have a deep bench of people to draw on to assume leadership in Gaza. It will turn to its Qatar-based Hamas leadership. This includes Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk, Ghazi Hamad and Osama Hamdan. But this is risky as it will make Hamas largely an organization of exiles. It has been here before. In 1992 Israel exiled Hamas leaders to an area between Israel and Lebanon. They eventually came back due to international pressure. Meshaal was also exiled. Israel even tried to kill Meshaal in the 1990s.
Hamas knows how to operate abroad. It has increased coordination with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has strong Iranian backing and it is backed by Turkey, Qatar, Russia and possibly even China. This means Hamas has more street credit abroad today. Does it have street credit at home. It has lost some support in Gaza, but it may have gained some in the West Bank. The ruin it has brought on Gaza likely gives Palestinians pause about what it might do the West Bank.
It is important to be wary of seeing the death of Sinwar as a magic wand. Cairo recently hosted the Iranian foreign minister and Egypt has expressed interest in a Palestinian unity deal. If the regional countries cannot be weaned of this idea of a unity deal that will save Hamas then the organisation may continue to survive. Hamas will continue to try to get a unity deal and access to the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah. Hamas is a genocidal group and its October 7 massacre was designed to showcase this quality. Now is the time for Israel and its friends in the West to leverage the death of Sinwar to achieve victory.
Seth J. Frantzman is the senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Post, an adjunct Fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024)