Israel’s high-wire balancing act over Russia could end in a nasty fall

The neutral stance has been noticed by western allies, but Israel doesn’t seem to be under any major pressure to get off the fence. On Tuesday, it voted at the UN to condemn Russia but for diplomatic balance, rather than Ambassador Gilad Erdan speaking, it was his deputy who gave a two-minute address. “The Americans wanted us to vote in favour. It would’ve looked bad if we hadn’t,” said an Israeli diplomat. “But our allies understand we have special conditions when it comes to Russia. Hundreds of thousands of Jews live there. We need to take them into consideration and we have Russia on our border in Syria.”

Israel’s leaders trod carefully around Mr Putin long before he sent his forces into Syria in 2015. The policy of never crossing him goes back to 2008, when he met President Shimon Peres at the Olympic opening ceremony in Beijing. Mr Putin took him aside for a quiet word. “Get your people out of Georgia,” warned.

A week later, Russian tanks invaded Georgia in Mr Putin’s first campaign against a former Soviet republic.

The Israeli military advisors who trained Georgia’s army and helped them use Israeli drones were already back in Israel. That was the last time Israel allowed the sale of any military knowhow to a country deemed as an enemy by Mr Putin.

He has met five Israeli prime ministers in his two decades in office. “The only Israeli leader who dared cross Putin was Ariel Sharon,” says an Israeli intelligence official. “Sharon would take [Mossad chief] Meir Dagan with him. Putin, as a former spy and KGB officer, was in awe of both of them. But since Sharon, it’s been the other way around: Israelis in awe of Putin.”

In Binyamin Netanyahu’s long term in office, he tried to make a big deal out of their “special relationship”. In 2015, he reached a deal with Mr Putin that Israel would not attack Bashar al-Assad’s regime; in return, Israel would be free to continue striking Iranians in Syria. The deal has worked and is still in place, but some Israeli diplomats are concerned that Israel has been made to look subservient to the Russian leader.

In 2018, Mr Netanyahu was Mr Putin’s guest at the May Victory Day parade in Moscow. He wore the orange-and-black St. George ribbon, widely seen as a symbol of Russian nationalism. The next year, Mr Netanyahu used photos of the Russian president and himself as part of his election campaign, aimed at showing Israelis the close relationships he has with world leaders.

Mr Netanyahu is out of office, yet the relationship with Putin is unchanged.

There’s no lack of Putin experts in Israel. The cabinet has two veteran ministers who are fluent Russian-speakers and have spent time with him. Yet still the Israeli government was surprised on Thursday morning when news arrived of the invasion. Avigdor Lieberman, the finance minister and Israel’s most prominent “Russian” politician, (though he was actually born in Kishinev, capital of Moldova), had said a week earlier in cabinet that “aliens would land before Putin invades Ukraine”.

Housing Minister Zeev Elkin, who has served as translator both for Mr Netanyahu and Mr Bennett in their meetings, was also sceptical.

“Lieberman and Elkin still see Putin as a product of the Soviet Union,” says a much younger Israeli Russia-watcher, who has spent considerable time in Russia in recent years as a representative of an Israeli agency. “Back in the USSR, decisions were made slowly and rationally by the Politburo. They’ve failed to grasp that Putin is no longer a Soviet creature. He sees himself as the embodiment of the Tsars, and makes capricious decisions on his own. 

The main victim now is Ukraine, but if we don’t adjust our thinking soon, it’s Israel that could also be on the receiving end.”