Israeli Budget delivers £3 billion bonus to the Charedim

If the budget isn’t passed by the Sunday deadline, the Knesset will have to be dissolved immediately and Israel would be heading for its sixth election in five years — an election that going by current polls, the coalition would have no chance of winning.

It wasn’t just about avoiding another election. This was about celebrating the one that took place less than seven months ago.

The victorious parties wasted the Knesset’s winter session debating and then failing to pass the “legal reform”, which is now suspended indefinitely. The budget is their delayed or deferred satisfaction. Finally they get to celebrate their victory.

This is not the celebration that some of the coalition’s leaders, especially Justice Minister Yariv Levin, the architect of the judicial overhaul, would have chosen.

He has remained silent in recent days, but the Kohelet Policy Forum, the influential conservative think tank that helped draft its now abandoned constitutional changes, was scathing in its appraisal of the budget.

Dr Michael Sarel, head of the economic department at Kohelet, said: “The damage that will be caused by not changing the funding policy of Charedi education is irreversible and it includes a rise in the tax burden, inequality and poverty. Not only is the government not changing the policy, but it’s strengthening it.”

Sarel’s criticism was tempered only by the admission that the policy of funding Charedi schools which don’t teach “core” subjects already existed under previous governments.

Israel’s GDP per capita was higher last year than Britain’s. It can afford next year to fund these schools at a higher-than-ever level. Whether it can continue doing so in the future, as the Charedi community is set to become an increasing part of the population, is another matter. Even the think tank that has most supported this government seems to think not.

SAUDI TALKS MYSTERY

Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Eli Cohen spoke last weekend with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, according to Channel 12 last Monday. The report was based on “Israeli and Saudi sources”.

Not so, according to National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi in a speech at a conference on Tuesday, saying categorically: “There wasn’t any conversation between Netanyahu and MBS in recent months.”

Who to believe? Neither report sounds particularly trustworthy. According to Channel 12, the talks with the Crown Prince were mediated by the Bahraini foreign minister, which hardly makes sense.

MBS doesn’t need the Bahrainis to find the phone number of the prime minister’s office for him. Neither does the purported subject of the discussion — direct Hajj pilgrimage flights for Arab-Israelis to Jeddah next month — need such high-level involvement. The flights have already been agreed upon in principle.

But Hanegbi’s denial sounds a tad suspect as well. In the past, senior Israeli officials always preferred not to comment on similar reports. Even if such talks didn’t take place, they preferred to leave everyone guessing.

It suits Israel that the other players in the region suspect its leaders are constantly talking secretly to everyone behind their backs. An outright denial is usually only issued when someone actually has something to hide.

Netanyahu certainly wants Israelis to think he’s making some headway with the Saudis. It was one of the three objectives he set out for his new government when he returned to office and it would be a great distraction from the shambolic failure to pass the “legal reform” and the unpopular budget.

All the more reason not to deny such talks, unless one of the parties involved demanded it.

Saudi-watchers in Israel’s intelligence branches and think tanks are divided over MBS’s notoriously opaque motives.

The majority believe that the prospects of a major breakthrough towards more open relations between Jerusalem and Riyadh, not just direct Hajj flights, are currently slim. The agreement brokered by the Chinese two months ago which saw the Saudis and the Iranians restoring diplomatic ties would indicate that they are less eager to build an anti-Iran axis with Israel.

Neither does it seem likely that the Biden administration will grant any of the exorbitant Saudi demands in return for a deal with Israel.

These include the full rehabilitation of the Crown Prince (including a state visit to the White House) from his alleged involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, supporting a new Saudi nuclear programme, and receiving assurances that the US would retaliate if attacked by Iran.

There is, however, a minority view among observers of Saudi affairs that the deal with the Iranians actually gives MBS more leeway to negotiate openly with Israel as well, in the name of achieving broader regional stability.

And as President Joe Biden embarks on his reelection campaign, he may also be more willing to grant some of the Saudis’ wishes, in the hope of presenting a historic treaty between Israel and the most influential of Arab regimes.

That would surpass the Abraham Accords achieved by his expected opponent, former President Donald Trump.

But even if such a scenario is in the works, it would happen much closer to the election next year. Which could be why the Israeli government, for now, was forced to deny any talks. If they actually happened, that is.