2 min read
Brexit was the result that was never supposed to happen. As the results rolled in from across the country it became clear that, once again, the collective assumption of a Remain win, one that had been shaped by the opinion polls, betting markets and economists, was wrong. David Cameron lost his latest gamble by nearly four points across the UK but by nearly seven points in England, where the contest was not even close.
The domestic political implications of the result are nothing short of momentous. The outcome has revived a constitutional crisis in Scotland, created a new one in Ireland, triggered the virtual collapse of the Labour Party and pushed the Conservative Party in a firmly Eurosceptic direction. But the vote has also cast a long shadow over Europe.
Before the vote, one of the big fears in most of Europe's capitals was of a so-called "contagion effect", the idea that Brexit might embolden anti-EU (and primarily anti-immigrant) parties in other European states, further eroding public support for the EU and fuelling xenophobia. Such fears are grounded in a realisation that the vote for Brexit is primarily, although not exclusively, driven by public anxieties over immigration.
In the aftermath of Britain's decision, it is already possible to identify the coming problem. In the immediate days following the result, I counted no less than seven European countries where parties of varying strengths had called for their own referendums, either on the Euro single currency or EU membership more broadly.
