2 min read
As the November 24 deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran approaches, there is no sign of an agreement. Despite upbeat public comments by Western officials that a deal is still possible, little progress has been made since Iran and the six world powers signed an interim agreement in Geneva almost a year ago. If there is a deal by November 24, it is because the West will fold and concede to Iran's demands.
Iran is sticking to its goals of retaining its nuclear infrastructure intact while peeling away at the sanctions architecture that crippled its economy. The six world powers are blurring their own red lines on every element of the negotiations in the hope of attaining any deal they can tout as success.
By obtaining recognition for a right of enrichment in the interim agreement, Iran already undermined six UN Security Council resolutions and established the principle that whatever else happens, its indigenous nuclear enrichment programme will remain in place.
By exacting sanctions relief early on, Iran changed market psychology and improved the fundamentals of its economy. Whereas a year ago Iran's economy was still on a downward trajectory, all now points to slow but steady economic recovery. And by refusing to budge on any substantive issue, Iran is ensuring that, if a deal is to be had, its ability to march on to a nuclear weapon will only be delayed but not scuttled.
