A single local election in Florida could reshape the face of America – and see corks popping in Jerusalem
April 3, 2025 11:23Not many outside the US noticed but perhaps the most significant event in determining the world’s economic and political trajectory over the next few years happened on Tuesday night.
No, there hasn’t been a fresh round of presidential elections, a stock market crash or even an attempted coup (well, another one). It was the seemingly tiny special election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District.
The contest pitted Republican Randy Fine, ex-state senator and close Trump ally, against the relatively unknown Democrat Josh Weil, a former teacher.
On the face of it, there were all the hallmarks of the run-of-the mill local election, complete with Weil’s heavily-pushed criticism of Fine for not living in the district.
But there’s a reason that both sides poured millions into the race, that Bernie Sanders schlepped down from Vermont to campaign with Weil and that even Trump waded in personally to lend Fine the power of his brand.
Keen watchers of US politics will recall that, at the election last November, the Republicans gained control of the House of Representatives by a margin of 220 seats to the Democrats’ 215. However, when a new President comes in, they appoint all manner of people to serve in their administration, occasionally including those already elected to the House.
First went Elise Stefanik to the post of ambassador to the UN ...219 to 215. Then Matt Gaetz, first to be Attorney General but then resigning in disgrace over an investigation by the Ethics Committee into allegations of sex trafficking and engaging in sexual activity with an underage woman. The committee’s report cleared Gaetz of sex trafficking but suggested that he had broken state laws regarding prostitution, statutory rape and drug use…218 to 215.
Even with three-seat cushion, the makeup of the House remained on a razor’s edge. The absence of notoriously moderate Democrats like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who lost their seats in the last election and had shown willingness to vote across the aisle on some issues – and increasing polarisation more generally – has made any majority more brittle than ever.
Then, in January, Michael Waltz of, you guessed it, Florida’s 6th District, resigned to take up the role as Trump’s National Security Adviser and, all of a sudden, the Republican majority was slashed to two...with three seats up for grabs.
Even the return of Stefanik after her nomination was withdrawn to preserve the majority would leave it at a dead heat.
So politicos found themselves on a Spring midweek night waiting with bated breath to see whether the Democrats could pull of what seemed impossible just a few months ago: flipping the House and seizing the means of blocking Trump’s legislative agenda until at least next year.
And when you consider that midterms are traditionally hostile to the incumbent party, it could’ve meant congressional gridlock running into 2028.
Unfortunately for the Democrats, the dream died in Florida as Jimmy Patronis claimed the 1st District before Fine extinguished the last spark of hope by claiming the 6th.
The result will no doubt trigger the latest round of Democratic navel gazing to try and work out just how they lost in the wake of a perceived tide of momentum with the voters (though, it’s important to note that the Republicans won the 6th by a 30-point margin just six months ago).
Well, perhaps surprisingly, Israel was a major issue in the campaign. Fine, a former state senator, is Jewish and has been extremely vocal in his support for the Jewish state over the years, while Weil is a Christian-born convert to Islam with a history of pro-Palestinian campaigning.
Accusations of antisemitism were frequently lobbed at Weil, especially after a podcast appearance in which he nodded as his co-host described Fine as an “unabashedly psycho pro-Israel” candidate.
On the other side, Fine came under fire for his social media history related to Gaza, including screenshots alleged to show posts from his account in which he said “Gaza must be destroyed”, “may the streets of Gaza overflow with blood” and “kill them all”, the latter of which was under the hashtags “NoMercy” and “BombsAway”. Fine has claimed these statements were in reference to Hamas terrorists, not Gazan civilians.
Indeed, the fact that Weil campaigned with Bernie Sanders, who has referred to Benjamin Netanyahu as a “war criminal” and voted against the supply of weapons to Israel, makes it all the more remarkable that he managed to run Fine so close, claiming 42 per cent of the vote to Fine’s 56 per cent.
But, with his challenger falling short, Fine has now secured the Republican majority for at least the next year, likely ensuring the continued flow of money and weapons from Washington to Jerusalem.
Over the course of a few hours the GOP pulled back from the brink of political near-impotence to cement their control of all three branches of government – with a Republican White House, Senate and House, as well as a conservative majority on the Supreme Court.
Now all they have to do is pass a legislative agenda that is set to fundamentally reshape the global economy, the Middle East peace process and the power balance of the US’ political system – at least they managed the hard part on Tuesday night.