Analysis
Lives and votes — the costs of a Gaza peace deal
The Gaza blockade, the fate of Israeli hostages and the upcoming Knesset election are all factors in efforts to agree a ceasefore, Anshel Pfeffer says
August 16, 2018 15:22
2 min read
The Gaza blockade, the fate of Israeli hostages and the upcoming Knesset election are all factors in efforts to agree a ceasefore, Anshel Pfeffer says
August 16, 2018 15:22Israel’s Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas have never been on the same side before.
This week, however, it transpired that they are together — leading the opposition to efforts for a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.
As the Israeli cabinet ended its fourth meeting in the last fortnight on the subject, Mr Bennett put out a statement describing the deal as: “a prize to terrorists who are not returning our prisoners and dead soldiers’ bodies.”
He warned that Israeli Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s “gesture to Hamas” will allow it “complete immunity to re-equip itself with tens of thousands of rockets that will threaten all parts of Israel and allow it to wage war against Israel at a time and under the conditions of its choosing.”
Mr Bennett directed his remarks at Mr Lieberman but the real target was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is eager to achieve a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible.
The argument between them is one of principle: Mr Bennett has proposed an alternative plan to launch a punitive operation against Hamas. Mr Netanyahu may share many of his rival’s right-wing views, but has never been a fan of military adventures.
Of course, there is also politics involved. Netanyahu, Bennett and Lieberman are the leaders of the three right-wing parties that will compete fiercely over the same group of voters in the upcoming election.
For the Prime Minister, achieving a level of calm around Gaza is imperative for his campaign. His rival believes that for some right-wing voters, the price Israel pays for the calm will be too high.
But Mr Bennett is in a minority in a cabinet that, for now, is ploughing towards a ceasefire.
In the first half of this week, calm returned to the Gaza border. For the first time in four months, not only was there no violence of any sort, but the sky was clear from the flaming kites and balloons that have been floating over from Gaza since March.
In response, Israel resumed normal operations on Wednesday at the Kerem Shalom crossing and Gaza’s fishermen were allowed to work in an expanded area offshore.
It was a far cry from the events of just a few days earlier, when a quick escalation led to nearly 200 rockets fired from Gaza, including one as far as Beer Sheva, and to 150 Israeli air-strikes, including the destruction of an office block in Gaza City, where Hamas had premises.
Hamas and Israel have been negotiating through the good offices of Egyptian intelligence and UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov while reminding each other of the implications of failure.
But a ceasefire deal, if finally agreed, will remain fragile and dependent not only to sudden flare-ups on the border. The Hamas leadership is divided too: some of its members who are closer to Iran would prefer an escalation, even if it costs the people of Gaza dearly.
A truce would be the first stage towards a more comprehensive agreement allowing the Palestinians time to rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure with Qatari and American money.
But before that happens, a tricky deal will have to be reached on returning two Israeli citizens and the bodies of two soldiers held in Gaza, for which Hamas is demanding Israel release prisoners.
