Analysis
Are the walls closing in for Sinwar and Hamas?
While Israel rotates its units in and out of Gaza, Hamas is constantly on the frontline
July 17, 2024 08:47
4 min read
While Israel rotates its units in and out of Gaza, Hamas is constantly on the frontline
July 17, 2024 08:47Why did Muhammad Deif, commander of the Ez Adeen al-Qassam Brigades, emerge from his tunnel on Friday? He and his entourage are now dead so we may never know for certain. They were killed in an air-strike on a Hamas compound west of Khan Younis the next morning. To be precise, we can say that he and they were almost certainly killed, as there has been no final confirmation to date. But the force of the bombardment which obliterated the compound and also killed dozens of civilians nearby makes it almost impossible that he could have survived.
But the question is important. Even after the IDF has spent over three months in Khan Younis combing through the tunnels and then destroying as much as they could of them, the assessment today is that large parts of the subterranean network remain intact and that Deif, along with his partner in the leadership of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, were sheltering there. So what caused him to leave and spend a night above ground in the compound, where he was spotted by Israeli surveillance?
Was he attending a meeting with his subordinates? Possibly, as the compound was that of the Khan Younis Brigade commander Raf’ah Salameh, whose death has been confirmed. Was Deif’s ill health, due largely to the multiple assassination attempts in the past, several of which wounded him badly, a cause? Did he need medical treatment or just one night’s sleep in the fresh air? It’s hard to believe that a man so used to being hunted down, with a target on his back for over 20 years, would have suddenly become complacent. But then nine months is a long time to spend in a tunnel, even for a phantom like Deif.
Since the IDF’s ground operation began on October 4 there has been talk of a “breaking point” when the constant bombardment from the air and the advance of the armoured brigades on the ground would wear down Hamas’ military structure and flush out even its most hardened commanders from the tunnels. When the full extent of the tunnel network was revealed – hundreds of kilometres more than Israeli intelligence had at first assessed, with special “commander tunnels” containing supplies and living facilities allowing them to remain underground for months – that breaking point seemed far away, if not simply unattainable. Whatever the actual reason for Deif coming up to the surface, it indicates increased exhaustion. While Israel rotates its units in and out of Gaza, Hamas is constantly on the frontline, taking cover.
Deif is almost certainly gone, as is his deputy Marwan Issa and Salameh, along with at least half of the brigade-level commanders of Hamas’ military wing. Another important milestone that has been barely noticed is that Hamas didn’t respond to the strike on Deif with massive volleys of rockets. Their arsenals have been destroyed and depleted. It will take a while before they can be replenished, if at all.
At this point, the question of whether Hamas has reached “breaking point” or even gone beyond it is no longer just one of military intelligence assessment. It is also a political issue, hotly debated between those who believe this is the moment to go for a ceasefire agreement which will secure the release of the remaining hostages in Gaza (which is most of the opposition and the defence establishment) and those who insist on continuing until Hamas is “destroyed,” if that is at all possible (the far-right parties in the coalition).
Benjamin Netanyahu sits between those camps. He must decide whether he should claim victory, accept the ceasefire and risk losing his own government and an early election, or continue the war which is also causing major exhaustion to Israel’s soldiers and civilians. He was guarded on this issue in his statements and at a press conference following the Deif assassination; he seemed to be keeping both options open. Next week, he will finally be in Washington, his first trip abroad in ten months. Once he is back, he will have to decide.
British influence
l One person who is unequivocally in favour of a ceasefire is the new British foreign secretary David Lammy who, in a statement put out on his arrival for a short visit to Israel and the West Bank on Sunday and Monday, called for “an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages and a rapid increase of humanitarian aid into Gaza on first Middle East visit”.
Lammy’s team were uncertain whether he should come to the region so early in his term and, if he did, what reception he would get. Part of the reason they did decide to come on just his tenth day in the job was the assurance he would get to meet the prime minister. This is an interesting sign, as the last time Lammy’s predecessor, Lord Cameron, flew out, he didn’t know until the last moment whether he would get to see Netanyahu.
But the Israeli government wants to take the measure of the new government in London and, while Britain is not seen as a major diplomatic player, there is one matter in which Netanyahu is particularly interested. The previous government requested to submit observations to the International Criminal Court’s pre-trial chamber on the arrest warrants that its prosecutor, Karim Khan, requested be issued against Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
But nothing was submitted before the election. The observations were expected to cover the ICC’s jurisdiction over Israeli citizens since Israel is not a signatory to the ICC’s Rome Statute.
Since Khan is a British barrister, reservations from the British government, especially one now led by a former human-rights lawyer and head of the Crown Prosecution Service, is regarded as holding more weight than those from other countries.
There have been conflicting reports in both the Israeli and British media since the election over a decision being made either to withdraw the request or to submit the observations. The issue was, of course, raised in Lammy’s meetings with Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. The answer, according to both countries’ officials, was that no decision had yet been reached either way.
Ostensibly, this is purely a legal matter, but it’s hard to avoid the impression that for the new government, this is an opportunity to regain a bit of influence in Jerusalem that Britain has lacked for so long.