A vital change, but prepare for a bumpy ride

For many parents, the proposed new Kedem secondary school cannot come a moment too soon. They want to avoid any repeat of last year's situation when a number of families could not send their child to a Jewish secondary school in north-west London.

But official bodies urge caution, calling for the need for solid evidence of demand. Partnerships for Jewish Schools, an agency under the wing of the Jewish Leadership Council, argues that at current levels there are enough places in mainstream Jewish secondaries for every Jewish applicant.

The first problem is that parents unable to get a place in one of the north-west London schools seem no longer prepared to send their children to King Solomon High School in Essex, as they used to. King Solomon is at least an hour's drive away, its academic results are not as good as the other Jewish schools and it has increasingly turned into a multi-faith, rather than exclusively, Jewish school.

Ever closer: The proposed changes would leave six Jewish secondary schools in north-west London and Hertfordshire all within seven miles of each other. Meanwhile, King Solomon, an hour’s drive away, is undersubscribed by Jewish pupils

Former JFS chairman Michael Glass believes that "the most appropriate short-term community solution would be for the existing schools to increase their intake. If a new school is going to open fairly quickly, then that should solve the problem without the existing schools needing to change their admission numbers".

What impact Kedem would have had on the existing Jewish schools is hard to predict because of the lack of firm statistics. On the face of it, rising demand appears likely. In two years, an extra 120 children will leave non-Charedi Jewish primary schools because a number of schools added bulge classes for that one year.

Then you have to factor in the graduates of five new Jewish primaries in London (excluding the Yavneh primary opening next year).

But even here it is not so simple. The pupils at the new Jewish primaries may have still opted for a Jewish secondary, even if they had attended a non-Jewish primary - so they may not herald a dramatic increase in Jewish secondary demand overall. Then there is the question of how many Jewish children might go to Kedem. Although a secondary school is usually expected to have an intake of 150 children a year, the free school route may allow for a smaller, boutique offering. Free faith schools, nevertheless, can reserve only half their places for members of their own community, although others of the same faith can be accepted on different grounds such as living near the school.

Even if a school teaching Jewish studies and Hebrew may primarily attract Jewish pupils, it could appeal to local applicants from other faiths - especially given the academic reputation of Jewish schools.

Kedem supporters may argue that supply also helps to generate demand. There were fears of over-supply when Yavneh and JCoSS opened but both are full, as are JFS and Hasmonean. The only "casualty" has been King Solomon.

Some might argue that if there is to be any new Jewish secondary school, Hertfordshire might be a better bet than Barnet. But that discussion may have to be revisited even if Kedem does open its doors as planned next year.