A proxy war that is devouring the Middle East

The same situation applies to the conflict raging in Yemen, where Saudi and Iranian military might is on full display – on opposite sides.

Then there’s Qatar, a tiny oil-rich nation that was plunged into isolation when a group of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia abruptly cut off diplomatic relations and closed its only land border. The group listed Qatar’s close relationship with Iran as one of their reasons for the move.

Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed Hezbollah is a powerful force and Mr Hariri’s family have extensive, well-documented links to Saudi Arabia, appears to have become the next act in the spectacle. 

“Turmoil” is a word often used — over-used, in fact — to describe events in the Middle East, so let’s use a different one to explain what’s going on: “change”.  

Some remarkable changes are happening in Saudi Arabia, some of which — like lifting a ban on women drivers or allowing women spectators in sports stadiums — have made headline news in the West.

Another change is the massive anti-corruption probe that has seen the arrest of some very senior people — princes, ministers and investors among them. It has been portrayed as a reform initiative; it can easily also be called a battle for power in the Saudi kingdom. 

Change is afoot, too, for Iran, which threw off the shackles of some crippling economic sanctions after a 2015 deal with six world powers over its nuclear programme. It has allowed the leadership in Tehran to become much more assertive: in Iraq, Syria and, it would seem, Lebanon.

This is a story of one-upmanship in the Middle East that will define the next decade in the region and beyond.