Lebanese commentators have said that Hezbollah’s failure to secure the presidency for its preferred preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, is a major blow to the terror group.
Despite delaying the election for 26 months, Hezbollah was ultimately unsuccessful. Frangieh withdrew his candidacy and shifted his support to General Joseph Aoun, a figure backed by the United States, France, Saudi Arabia and several other Arab nations.
This loss for Hezbollah also dealt a significant setback to Iran and the Shi’ite “Amal” movement, which had supported Frangieh.
Israel’s recent military victory played a pivotal role in ending Lebanon’s two-year political vacuum, paving the way for Aoun’s election.
According to Lebanese sources, senior envoys from Gulf countries are expected to visit Beirut soon to meet with the new president.
Additionally, Aoun is planning an official visit to Saudi Arabia following an invitation from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who personally congratulated him on his election.
Commentators in Lebanon point to two urgent priorities for President Aoun. One is stabilising the ceasefire in southern Lebanon.
While Hassan Odeh serves as the army’s interim commander, a permanent chief of staff is expected to be appointed soon.
Aoun’s efforts will also focus on facilitating the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory as outlined in the ceasefire agreement.
The other is forming a new government. Aoun will begin political consultations this week to establish a new government, replacing the interim administration led by Najib Mikati.
Lebanon now faces a rare opportunity to embark on economic reconstruction, with UN Resolution 1701 providing a framework for stabilising the ceasefire and broader recovery efforts.
In his victory speech, Aoun pledged to dispel doubts regarding his ability to dismantle Hezbollah’s military capabilities, as many in Lebanon’s political opposition demand.
A key question is whether Aoun can prevent the smuggling of weapons from Syria to Lebanon and the transfer of weapons and funds from Iran to Hezbollah, particularly through Beirut’s international airport, a critical route for such supplies.
Officials in Jerusalem have expressed concerns that Aoun’s election may heighten international pressure on Israel to withdraw fully from southern Lebanon.
Any delay in this withdrawal could undermine Aoun’s position domestically, further complicating an already fragile political environment.
According to a report in the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar on January 11, US special envoy Amos Hochstein has assured Lebanese officials that Washington has guaranteed Israel’s full withdrawal before the 60-day ceasefire concludes.
Lebanese political commentators suggest that Aoun’s election is primarily the result of significant international pressure on Lebanon’s political system.
Despite widespread opposition within parliamentary factions, Aoun managed to secure a majority for his presidency.
He now faces the daunting task of steering Lebanon toward a brighter future by fostering new regional and international partnerships. However, his tenure is likely to encounter persistent resistance from his opponents, particularly Hezbollah and its allies.
Reports indicate that Hezbollah and the Shi’ite “Amal” movement have received assurances that their representatives will occupy key positions in the new government, including the roles of prime minister and finance minister. The incoming government is also expected to prioritise rebuilding Lebanon from the devastating effects of the recent conflict.
Public expectations for Aoun are high, with many Lebanese citizens expressing optimism about his potential to guide the country toward stability and reform. However, the political reality remains precarious, and the path forward is fraught with obstacles.
As Aoun works to stabilise Lebanon, the interplay of domestic pressures, international expectations and opposition from entrenched political factions will determine whether his presidency ushers in a new era for the country—or becomes another chapter in its turbulent history.
