US intelligence officials wrongly predicted catastrophic consequences if Israel escalated against Hezbollah in September and warned of massive casualties and all-out war, according to a new report.
According to Times of Israel, US assessments prior to Israel’s escalation were based largely on intelligence from Israel itself, which envisioned Hezbollah’s missile capabilities overwhelming Israeli defences and causing substantial Israeli loss of life.
However, Israel crippled Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership in southern Lebanon, eventually leading the weakened terror group to agree to a ceasefire.
“The assessments… were that this was potentially going to be a catastrophic war that would cause potentially hundreds or thousands of Israeli casualties as Hezbollah missiles overwhelmed Israeli defences,” one US official told Times of Israel. These predictions, however, proved to be far from accurate.
Instead, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) dismantled much of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, destroyed missile and drone capabilities, and decimated its senior leadership.
Hezbollah did manage to expand its range of rocket and drone launches, disrupting life for civilians in areas previously untouched by such threats, leading to 57 Israeli soldiers and 21 civilians losing their lives during the two-month escalation.
Israel’s military successes were significant enough to force Hezbollah, which had been aggressively attacking since October 7, to agree to a ceasefire by late November.
In the lead-up to Israel’s September offensive, US intelligence officials had expressed grave concerns about the potential for a devastating war.
“The disaster scenario appeared increasingly likely as Israel began striking targets deeper into Lebanon,” said one US official.
As tensions escalated, senior figures in Washington, including Pentagon and White House officials, began meeting to discuss how to respond to the expected conflict.
The US intelligence community shared a broad understanding with Israeli officials, acknowledging both sides’ fears about what would happen in a full-blown war with Hezbollah.
“This was why for many months Israel held off on launching the kind of attacks it began conducting in September. They were no less concerned about what a full-blown war with Hezbollah would mean,” said a second US official.
Despite these fears, Israel ultimately went ahead, believing that the cost of action was necessary to confront Hezbollah.
The escalation reached a critical point on September 17-18, when Israel launched a bold operation, detonating explosives within Hezbollah’s communications network. Despite US concerns that this could drag Iran into the conflict, Israel pressed ahead.
In the days that followed, Israel's airstrikes eliminated senior Hezbollah figures, including the Radwan force and, by September 27, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
As Israel's military successes mounted, US assessments shifted. Though Washington initially pushed for a ceasefire, it backed away after Israel's gains, including thwarting a second Iranian missile strike.
Reflecting on the outcome, a US official acknowledged the miscalculations by both American and Israeli intelligence, noting that while luck played a role, a reassessment of intelligence strategies was necessary.
During an appearance at New York’s 92nd Street Y, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was asked about the most surprising developments in the Middle East.
Sullivan responded that the speed, scope, and scale of the Middle East’s transformation in recent months was unexpected. "The remaking of the Middle East... you’d find very few people who could have predicted all of that,” he said, reflecting on the broader shift in regional dynamics.
