Perfect storm

Israeli diplomats are concerned that the coming months will see concerted diplomatic pressure on their government to make major concessions to the Palestinians or suffer some form of sanctions.

As the American mid-term elections have drawn to their end, President Barack Obama enters his final two years with no need to be re-elected or help his party win in Congress.

The relationship between Jerusalem and Washington has become particularly rocky of late. Last week, anonymous US administration officials made disparaging remarks about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon was not able to have any meetings at the White House or State Department during his visit two weeks ago.

Israeli diplomats fear that what some commentators have downplayed as a spat could have serious ramifications, with the possibility that the US could display a much more forceful attitude towards Israel in the future.

Until now, the Americans have made do with condemning Israel's announcements of new building across the Green Line, as they did this week when the government announced it was pushing through 660 new homes in eastern Jerusalem. Following their lead, the EU has also made do with condemnations. Despite various leaks of planned sanctions, there has been no real change and the economic co-operation treaties have gone ahead as planned.

Countdown to crisis?

29 APRIL Peace talks collapse
8 JULY Operation Protective Edge launched
24 SEPT Givat Hamatos settlement approved
8 OCT EU 'preparing Israel sanctions'
23 OCT Yaalon subbed by White House
25 Nov Iran nuclear talks deadline
Mid Jan Palestinians likely to submit draft Security Council resolution

The Palestinians now have the upper hand on the diplomatic front. Following the fighting in Gaza, increased violence in the West Bank, several settlement announcements and the breakdown of talks, Israel is widely being seen by the international community as the party that must make concessions.

President Mahmoud Abbas's new initiative to demand a firm timetable for establishing a Palestinian state is tailored to take advantage of the new make-up of the United Nations Security Council. On January 1, Israel will lose two key supporters on the council, Australia and Rwanda, while Venezuela and Malaysia, two countries with which it does not even have diplomatic relations, will join, giving the Palestinians the necessary majority of nine votes to pass resolutions.

The Israeli assessment is that the Palestinians will try to get their statehood request passed some time next year.

This will create a dilemma for the Obama administration, which can choose to use its Security Council veto, but may pressure Israel into changing its policy in return.

Some are even beginning to talk of an US decision not to veto. "The problem is that right now it's hard to predict how the administration will act," said one Israeli official, "as the personal relations between the leaders are so bad, that we can't get clear reassurances."

Not all Israeli officials agree that the diplomatic storm is imminent. "I wouldn't get swept away by the threats of an onslaught on Israel," said one Israeli diplomat stationed in Europe. "There was talk of a diplomatic tsunami in the past and that failed to materialise. Also, while there are more condemnations of Israel, the diplomatic community is at the same time increasingly distracted by the unfolding Islamic State crisis and the situation in Ukraine. I'm not sure the Western governments really have the time or the energy now to focus on the Israel-Palestine conflict."

Other reasons for - at least - short-term optimism in Jerusalem is the feeling that European nations do not seem to be eager to follow Sweden's lead in recognising a Palestinian state.