Following the mass pager and radio communication blasts that hit Hezbollah in Lebanon on Tuesday and Wednesday, observers are now evaluating the extent of the damage.
The attack caused numerous injuries and many fatalities which has severely disrupted Hezbollah’s operational infrastructure by taking thousands of commanders off the battlefield.
In a televised speech on Thursday, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged that his organisation absorbed an unprecedented blow to its personnel and security, adding that there was no dispute that “the enemy has technological superiority”. Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders have vowed retaliation.
With now much of Hezbollah’s communication eliminated as pagers were meant to be a safer replacement for smart phones, this has damaged the organisation’s ability to function confidently.
According to Commander. (res.) Eyal Pinko, a former Israeli Navy officer, who also served in an intelligence organisation the attack hit 3,000 terror operatives in “less than a second.”
He added: “If you just look at the persons who were carrying those beepers, this is probably the senior commanders and above.
“So it’s from the battalion commanders and above. So probably what is happening now in Hezbollah is that all the commanding structure from, let’s say, the rank of lieutenant colonel in a regular military to the generals, the two or three generals, are totally injured or some of them are already died.
“So now to get even to the time to reset and to start to understand what is happening, it will take a few days.”
He noted that the surprise attack had brought Hezbollah to its knees.
However, he emphasised that the group’s opposition in Lebanon remains no match for its armed operatives, who are estimated to number nearly 100,000, including reserve forces.
“You need to have a huge army in order to compete with them,” said Pinko.
However, the 3,000 or so injured operatives mean that an enormously significant number of senior commanders are not functional – in all likelihood, “all [of the] senior commanding level were damaged,” he assessed.
Hezbollah operatives in Syria were also affected by the pager blasts.
On September 9, international media reported that Israeli special forces and aircraft struck an IRGC missile site in Hama, western Syria, designed to produce accurate missiles for Hezbollah.
This attack hindered Hezbollah’s ability to obtain kits that enhance bomb accuracy, part of their rocket accuracy programme.
Pinko suggested these actions were preparatory moves before a larger strike.
On July 31, the Israeli Air Force killed Hezbollah’s second-in-command, Fuad Shukr, dealing another significant blow. Pinko highlighted the precision and quality of intelligence behind such strikes.
While international media focused on the pager attack, less attention was given to how the explosive material was activated.