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Obama’s keenness for a foreign policy success will be key to a final Iran deal

April 9, 2015 16:37

By

Tim Marshall,

Tim Marshall

2 min read

At the beginning of the 1970s TV Western series Alias Smith and Jones, the outlaws Hannibal Heyes and Kid Curry are offered an amnesty if they stay out of trouble for a while. In the meantime, however, they'll still be wanted men. Heyes asks: "That's a good deal?"

Conservatives in Iran and the US are now asking the same question as details emerge about the nuclear deal thrashed out in Lausanne last week. Each regards the other as the outlaw, each regards the deal as favourable to the other, and each will do their best to derail it in the run up to the June 30 deadline to finalise details.

From what we know it is hard to see the deal as anything other than favourable to Iran. Because of this, the dire state of Iran's economy, and President Barack Obama's keenness to score at least one major foreign policy success, the likelihood is that the deal can be done. It is far from certain, however, and there will be several bumps along the way.

On the Iranian side, there is little the hawks can do. Officials close to the man who matters - Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - have been queuing up to praise the deal. Among them were the interim Friday prayer leader in Tehran, Ayatollah Emami Kashani. He's normally a "Death to America/Israel/Country of choice" type of ayatollah, but he described the deal as "fundamental and excellent".