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Obama’s keenness for a foreign policy success will be key to a final Iran deal

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At the beginning of the 1970s TV Western series Alias Smith and Jones, the outlaws Hannibal Heyes and Kid Curry are offered an amnesty if they stay out of trouble for a while. In the meantime, however, they'll still be wanted men. Heyes asks: "That's a good deal?"

Conservatives in Iran and the US are now asking the same question as details emerge about the nuclear deal thrashed out in Lausanne last week. Each regards the other as the outlaw, each regards the deal as favourable to the other, and each will do their best to derail it in the run up to the June 30 deadline to finalise details.

From what we know it is hard to see the deal as anything other than favourable to Iran. Because of this, the dire state of Iran's economy, and President Barack Obama's keenness to score at least one major foreign policy success, the likelihood is that the deal can be done. It is far from certain, however, and there will be several bumps along the way.

On the Iranian side, there is little the hawks can do. Officials close to the man who matters - Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - have been queuing up to praise the deal. Among them were the interim Friday prayer leader in Tehran, Ayatollah Emami Kashani. He's normally a "Death to America/Israel/Country of choice" type of ayatollah, but he described the deal as "fundamental and excellent".

So it's all systems go for the June deal, followed by a "grand bargain", which would leave Iran the dominant power in the Middle East.

The bumps lie in what was not in the provisional deal. The timing of when sanctions are lifted has yet to be thrashed out. The Iranians say they should be removed immediately; this was not in the details released by the US. There is no mention of inspecting the Parchin facility, which is almost certainly part of Iran's nuclear project but to which Iran refuses access. The interim deal does not specify the duration of a final agreement.

The American text repeatedly uses the words such as "shall" and "will"; in Farsi, the same sentences include words such as "could" and "may". All these issues need to be worked out and both sides warn that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

On Capitol Hill, we can expect a vote on a bill - possibly next week - that ensures Congress has to review any deal. A new sanctions bill is also being readied. Mr Obama can use his power of veto; the hawks can respond by attempting to get enough votes to make a resolution veto-proof.

If all else fails, the hawks will fall back on trying to persuade the Republican presidential candidates to oppose the deal.

In Tehran, the hawks are waiting to pounce. The editor of the conservative newspaper Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, said Iran had "saddled its horses" and "delivered the reins" to the US. Or, to put it another way: "That's a good deal?"

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