“Israel has zero influence over the outcome of the talks to resume the nuclear agreement,” said one of the most senior Iran-watchers in Israel’s intelligence community.
“The way our politicians are using the issue in the election campaign is downright irresponsible.”
This week, as American officials briefed the media that a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was unlikely as long as Iran is insisting that the International Atomic Energy Agency’s investigation be suspended, as a condition, it was the turn of Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s aides to claim they had won.
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid
The previous week, when it seemed that the draft agreements passed on by the EU negotiators were acceptable to both sides, it was Benjamin Netanyahu’s turn to accuse the Lapid government of having failed.
“President Biden decided from the start to do everything he can to rejoin the JCPOA and nothing Israel will say can change that,” says the senior Iran-watcher.
“Ultimately, it’s up to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and he’s reluctant to go all the way as he fears, quite rightly, that Iran has little to gain at this point from the Americans removing their sanctions as two years later a Republic administration will withdraw from the deal just like Trump did.
"International companies aren’t going to start doing business again with Iran under these circumstances and the Iranians have got used to American sanctions. They’re doing more business with Russia and China instead.”
The current situation where negotiations continue indefinitely and the JCPOA is a “zombie agreement,” which Iran flouts at will and continues to enrich uranium to threshold of what it would need for a nuclear weapon works well for Tehran.
Meanwhile, no Israeli politician can allow themselves to shatter the illusion that Israel has control over events. Certainly not during an election campaign.
Truss a new factor?
IF THE US is indeed not re-entering the Iran deal, what next?
The general expectation is that talks will resume after the November mid-term elections for the US Congress and Senate, when the Biden administration can focus again on foreign policy. But there is another option being mentioned quietly in Israel — an option connected to the new occupant of 10 Downing Street.
During the year she spent as Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss impressed her counterparts in Jerusalem not only by her staunchly pro-Israel positions, as well as a hawkishness on Iran, but also with her willingness to disregard the advice of her professional diplomats. This has given the raise to the hope that as prime minister, Ms Truss will take matters another step forward.
As one of the signatories to the JCPOA, Britain can initiate a “snapback” of the United Nations Security Council sanctions that were removed in 2015 when the deal was first signed.
A “snapback” can be justified if Iran is not in compliance with the agreement’s terms, which has been the case for a while now.
But only one of the signatories can start the process, and since the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement, the US is no longer considered a signatory and none of the other signatories (UK, France, Germany, Russia and China) wanted to do that.
“Boris Johnson was a supporter of the JCPOA, but Truss may be another matter,” suggests a senior Israeli official intimately involved in the Iranian file.
“If Britain changes its position and begins a snapback procedure in the Security Council, the threat of much more severe sanctions could be the crucial extra bit of pressure to force Iran to make the necessary concessions for a new deal to be signed. It would also test the resolve of Russia and China to continue supporting Iran, if it doesn’t.”
So far, this is just speculation. Hitherto, Britain breaking ranks with the other signatories in such a fashion would have been unthinkable and there has been no indication the new prime minister would be willing to do so. But it could be the issue on which Ms Truss shows she is going to pursue her own independent foreign policy.
Michaeli’s big gamble
The long summer of the Israeli election campaign is finally over and with it, the initial stage of candidate list-making is about to end. Next Thursday at midnight is the deadline for the parties to file their lists with the Central Election Commission.
By now most of the big issues have either been settled or are at least close to being resolved.
The far-right factions will be running once again in one list as “Religious Zionism”, though this time, due to their strong showing in the polls, members of Itamar Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power party will have more spots on the list. The three remaining Arab parties of the Joint List are also close to agreeing on another joint run.
What seemed like a massive blow-up between the Chasidic Agudath Yisrael and “Lithuanian” Degel Ha’Torah, which comprises United Torah Judaism, seems to have been averted, at least temporarily, and they are inching towards agreement.
Of the three “moderate” right-wing parties that were in the coalition, only Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu is running in the same format, while Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope has merged with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White to become National Unity. Naftali Bennett’s Yamina has dissolved and its sole remnant, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, has renamed the party Zionist Spirit.
Only one major question remains: will Labour and Meretz, the two Zionist left parties which are both currently hovering in the polls around five seats each, perilously close to the 3.25 per cent threshold, risk electoral oblivion (and a likely majority for Netanyahu if their votes are lost) or create a tactical merger?
Meretz’s new-old leader, Zehava Galon, has signalled that she is open to the idea, but Labour’s Meirav Michaeli has so far refused even to contemplate it. It isn’t just about the coalition arithmetic.
From Labour’s perspective, this is a decision of historic proportions. Running together with Meretz would be an acknowledgement that Labour has lost the centre ground to Yesh Atid and National Unity and is now just another small left-wing party.
Michaeli has promised party members that she can restore Labour to its position at the centre of Israeli politics.
Even though the polls indicate she has so far failed to do so, in July the members made her the first Labour leader in more than 30 years to win a second consecutive term.
“Meirav simply won’t read the polls or listen to what the campaign advisers are saying,” says one party insider.
“She’s prepared to sink both Labour and Meretz and let Netanyahu back into power rather than accept the fact that Labour’s leader is no longer a candidate for prime minister.”
