A weapons expert has suggested that Iran's ballistic missiles may not be as accurate as previously thought, which may be underming its ability to deter Israel.

US research analyst Decker Eveleth has examined what appear to be open source images of the aftermath of Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Nevatim Air Force Base, concluding that while the attack caused limited damage, it provided critical insights into missile performance.

The findings by Eveleth, an associate research analyst at the CNA Corporation which specialises in analysing satellite imagery to assess ballistic and cruise missile forces, indicate that Iranian missiles likely have a “circular error probability” (CEP).

"Iranian missiles likely have a CEP of around 800-900 metres, potentially as good as 500 metres if you make a series of extremely favourable assumptions for Iran," he stated.

Map of what are claimed to be the sites at the Nevatim air base struck by Iranian ballistic missiles on October 1 (Image: Decker Eveleth)

Understanding CEP is crucial in evaluating missile effectiveness, he wrote. The metric measures the radius within which a missile is expected to land 50 per cent of the time.

For example, if a missile has a CEP of 30 metres, it does not guarantee a hit within that distance most shots would likely miss if a direct hit were required to achieve destruction. This limitation means that Iranian missiles are constrained in their deterrence capabilities.

As Eveleth points out, “There are hard limits on the deterrence benefits of Iranian missile forces. If you can only credibly threaten cities, then you can’t threaten targets that you could hit at lower rungs of the escalation ladder,” effectively undermining Iran's ability to deter lower-level conflicts.

Eveleth's analysis reinforces scepticism regarding the advertised capabilities of Iranian missiles, suggesting that their lack of precision diminishes their threat level.

This perspective was supported by Economist defence editor Shashank Joshi, who raises further questions about the circumstances surrounding these missile evaluations.

"The question is how much of this is a function of the specific circumstances of range (Iran is far from Israel) and Israeli countermeasures, which would have degraded GPS-equivalent signals. If so, Iranian missiles would be more capable against other states."

With their current level of accuracy, Iranian missiles may not be the strategic deterrent they are believed to be, potentially altering the dynamics of the Israel-Iran standoff.