Iran’s big problem? Its ballistic missiles are not accurate, says expert

Map of what are claimed to be the sites at the Nevatim air base struck by Iranian ballistic missiles on October 1 (Image: Decker Eveleth)[Missing Credit]

Understanding CEP is crucial in evaluating missile effectiveness, he wrote. The metric measures the radius within which a missile is expected to land 50 per cent of the time.

For example, if a missile has a CEP of 30 metres, it does not guarantee a hit within that distance most shots would likely miss if a direct hit were required to achieve destruction. This limitation means that Iranian missiles are constrained in their deterrence capabilities.

As Eveleth points out, “There are hard limits on the deterrence benefits of Iranian missile forces. If you can only credibly threaten cities, then you can’t threaten targets that you could hit at lower rungs of the escalation ladder,” effectively undermining Iran's ability to deter lower-level conflicts.

Eveleth's analysis reinforces scepticism regarding the advertised capabilities of Iranian missiles, suggesting that their lack of precision diminishes their threat level.

This perspective was supported by Economist defence editor Shashank Joshi, who raises further questions about the circumstances surrounding these missile evaluations.

"The question is how much of this is a function of the specific circumstances of range (Iran is far from Israel) and Israeli countermeasures, which would have degraded GPS-equivalent signals. If so, Iranian missiles would be more capable against other states."

With their current level of accuracy, Iranian missiles may not be the strategic deterrent they are believed to be, potentially altering the dynamics of the Israel-Iran standoff.