Tehran is likely to pursue this goal by making a breakout for nuclear capabilities before the American election in November, he suggested, as if Donald Trump wins a second term, it may suffer a return to his “maximum pressure” approach.
Key to the Islamic Republic’s desire to eradicate Israel, he said, is the Ayatollah's belief in the end of time via the Mahdi. The regime believes that a Shia messiah known as the “Twelfth Imam,” or the “Mahdi,” will rise up and establish an Islamic world order and destroy Israel.
This ideology has spread to Iran’s Shia militia proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Fatemiyoun in Afghanistan and Zainebiyoun in Pakistan, according to Aarabi.
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“In many ways, they are more extreme and committed to this doctrine than the IRGC itself.” Aarabi added, “October 7 was seen as a sign of the nearing of the end of times.”
Some in the regime argue that a nuclear arsenal will hasten the coming of the Mahdi: “The IRGC’s cult of Mahdism involves written doctrines which state that Iran’s nuclear programme is the modern armouring that Mahdi will need. They believe ‘we are preparing ourselves; we are the militaristic vehicle for Mahdi.’”
Meanwhile, Sabti noted division within Iranian leadership.
An Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, Sabti said that after Israel’s response to the Iranian strike in April, “There are a few cautious leaders in the regime [...] who got the message, they saw that Israel is capable of doing more.” He added that there were, however, more “extremists and figures that want to bring the Mahdi" who want escalation with Israel.
Aarabi agreed, “There is a cult [in the IRGC] that welcomes destruction."
On October 7, according to Aarabi, the regime “believe they showed absolute strength in the face of weakness [...] crucially they were monitoring how America responded to the attack. On that account, this sets a very dangerous precedent.”
“Iran won on October 7; they achieved a huge goal. It brought instability and disorder to the Middle East and neutralised the peace deal with Saudi Arabia,” Sabti went on.
If Netanyahu’s coalition accepts the ceasefire deal tabled by the US last weekend, Sabti argued this could be seen as a loss for Iran as it will reignite peace talks with Saudi Arabia. Aarabi, however, said that the end of the war now would be a victory for the IGRC.
Both agreed that Israeli normalisation with Saudi posed a major threat to Iran.
“To undermine this [Islamic Republic] project, expand the Abraham Accords, do whatever it takes because it weakens them,” Aarbai said.
Both noted the strong cultural and historical ties between Israel and Iran.
“The existence of the Islamic Republic is existential for Iranians; it is also existential for Israel and the Jewish people. Iranians feel that the only nation they can rely on is Israel,” Aarabi said, noting that Iranian society is largely supportive of Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The “silver lining,” according to Aarabi, is that the fanatical zealots only make up around 10 per cent of the population. “The overwhelming majority of the Iranian population not only look at Israel positively, they look at it as a natural ally."
“When the Islamic Republic collapses, you will see Iran and Israel become the greatest allies,” Aarabi concluded.
