In its conflict with Hezbollah, Israel's intelligence operations have undergone a profound transformation.
Historically, Israel made several attempts to assassinate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah during the 2006 Second Lebanon War, all of which failed owing to missed strikes and the group’s fortified positions.
However, recent developments have shifted the balance in Israel's favour, culminating in last week’s successful operation against Nasrallah.
An in-depth review of Israel’s intelligence by the Financial Times has revealed that the turning point for Israel came after the assassination of Fuad Shukr, one of Nasrallah’s top aides, on July 30.
The assassination prompted a sea change in the “depth and quality of the intelligence that Israel was able to lean on”, the FT wrote.
Israeli intelligence had already expanded its focus beyond Hezbollah's military activities to include its political ambitions and ties to Iran and Syria.
The Syrian civil war further complicated Hezbollah’s internal structure, exposing vulnerabilities that Israeli intelligence exploited.
As Hezbollah became enmeshed in Syria, it had to collaborate with the corrupt Syrian and Russian intelligence services, according to the FT, which weakened its operational discipline.
Yezid Sayigh from the Carnegie Middle East Centre noted, “They went from being highly disciplined and purists to someone who [when defending Assad] let in a lot more people than they should have.”
It led to a decline in Hezbollah’s traditional rigour as “the complacency and arrogance was accompanied by a shift in its membership as they started to become flabby”, Sayigh added.
Israeli intelligence took advantage of the wealth of information available from the war in Syria, including social media and public obituaries of fighters.
These sources provided valuable insights into Hezbollah’s operations and personnel. The emergence of advanced technological capabilities — spy satellites, drones, and cyber-hacking — enabled Israel to enhance its surveillance and analysis significantly.
Through Unit 9900, tasked with analysing vast amounts of visual data, Israel was able to track the movements of Hezbollah operatives meticulously.
Any deviation from their usual patterns of movement would trigger alerts for further investigation, allowing Israel to monitor key commanders and anticipate attacks.
Over time, this strategic patience paid off. In the recent escalation of hostilities, Israel identified around 3,000 potential Hezbollah targets in the first three days of its air campaign, demonstrating the effectiveness of its intelligence apparatus.
Israel unleashed its offensive capabilities against Hezbollah in response to fears of cross-border raids similar to Hamas’s attack on October 7.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to deploy advanced offensive measures, including detonating booby-trapped pagers, hit Hezbollah operations hard, wounding thousands..
Miri Eisin, a former IDF senior intelligence officer, said: ”Hezbollah did not disappear in the last 10 days — we’ve damaged and degraded them, but they still have lots of capabilities that are very threatening.”
The evolution of Israeli intelligence operations represents a crucial factor in the continuing struggle against Hezbollah, highlighting the effectiveness of patience, technology and a comprehensive understanding of the adversary.
