Planning, subterfuge and healthy dose of good fortune ended the latest round of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah without any casualties on the Israeli side.
Hezbollah claimed to have killed and wounded Israeli soldiers in its rocket attack on an IDF base, but the actual damage was only to a vehicle and a wall in the base near Avivim, on the Lebanon border.
The IDF had been preparing for the attack following repeated threats by Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah that his organisation would strike back at Israel “at any point on the border.”
In truth he had no choice but to attack, having seen Hezbollah humiliated twice in a matter of hours last weekend — in an Israeli strike in Syria where two Hezbollah operatives were killed, and a subsequent explosion in Beirut that destroyed a key component in the Iranian programme to improve the accuracy of Hezbollah rockets.
But the Israeli assessment was that Hezbollah are not interested in escalating matters further.
Mr Nasrallah is not only an Iranian proxy, but also the leader of a major Lebanese political party who does not want to be blamed for a conflict devastating Lebanon’s infrastructure and economy.
Even if he were interested in going to war, Hezbollah is still licking its wounds from eight years of deep involvement in the Syrian war and in no shape to contend with the IDF.
Hezbollah officials speaking to the Lebanese media were saying as much when they described the planned retaliation as “measured.”
The IDF’s challenge was to “contain” that retaliation. Iron Dome missile defence batteries were deployed to the north and any movement on the border road was to be in convoy.
Israel does not want a war with Lebanon either, certainly not on the eve of an election, but the potential for rapid escalation would be determined in part by the number of casualties Hezbollah caused.
When the salvo of anti-tank missiles was fired from near the village of Maroun al-Ras, they did not come as a surprise. All movement in the nearby IDF base, parts of which are exposed to the Hezbollah stronghold, was in armoured vehicles. One jeep-ambulance was hit but did not penetrate, and soldiers within were unscathed, but officials are investigating why it was travelling alone on an exposed road.
The IDF responded with artillery and aerial strikes towards the source of the rocket fire and simultaneously, a charade was being carried out on the base.
A Blackhawk helicopter landed to evacuate two soldiers who seemed to be wounded. They were flown to Rambam hostpital in Haifa. Hezbollah’s teams were filming the goings-on and the organisation was quick to brag that soldiers in the vehicle hit had been “wounded and killed.”
Two-and-a-half hours later, an IDF spokesperson announced there were no casualties at all. But Hezbollah had already claimed its empty propaganda victory.
For now, the assessment is that Mr Nasrallah will make do. Hezbollah media sources are continuing to claim that Israel is lying and that there is no way that the soldiers in the jeep were not harmed.
The latest round has been “contained” and seems to be over. But the Iranian efforts to equip Hezbollah with more accurate missiles continue.
This will not be the last clash between the two sides.
