“Economics cannot solve politics alone, but it can produce a more conducive environment for the solving of those problems – we saw that in Northern Ireland.
“People who have nothing to lose are likely to gamble,” Fox added.
While war in Gaza and an imminent US election have muted this year’s anniversary of the Accords, Fox believes there is a lot to celebrate.
Dr Liam FoxGetty Images
“There’s no doubt that normalising relations with Israel has become a hot topic [since October 7], but it is testament to brave leadership in Abraham Accord countries who understand this is the best option. Notwithstanding the Gaza situation, the UEA, Bahrain and Morocco have been studiously observant of the strategic goals of the Abraham Accords. That should give us cause for optimism. In the domestic population what is happening is unpopular... We know there is strong public opinion against what is happening in Gaza but it has been managed,” Fox went on, crediting national leaders for their commitment to continued normalisation despite pressure from the street.
The post-October 7 threat from Iran has made the Accords more important, Fox believed.
“There is a very strong security element to the Abraham Accords, which is based on the fact that the threat has increased rather than decreased.”
When Iran launched its missile attack in April, Gulf states supported Israel. That was indicative, Fox said, of the growing strategic alliance between nations, something he was disappointed that British media did not cover in more depth.
“It showed how out of place Iran is in the family of civilised nations – not because of the people of Iran – but because of the extremists in charge. They have had thousands of executions this year, it would be a human rights splash all over the world’s media anywhere else.”
Convinced that the Accords have evolved beyond US politics, Fox was confident that either a Harris or Trump presidency could revitalise the process.
While Fox noted “a certain reticence among the left in America,” he added that “Kamala Harris has been very supportive of the process on her visits to the region.”
In the UK, he said he thought the Foreign Office could have been more encouraging, both in the past and today: “New administration, same Foreign Office – they’ve never been very interested, which is a pity.”
Disappointed about the lack of public support for Accord country leaders, Fox went on: “The West could be doing more to show its admiration for the commitment that leaders have given.
“Western leaders could be putting out statements saying, ‘It is amazing that the agreements have survived recent events.’ They could give greater acknowledgement to those who had the vision to take it forward. If you can’t be doing anything else, at least you can be giving moral support.”
Looking to the future, Fox was hopeful that the Accords would expand with more opportunities for young people – and grow to other nations: “It’s not a choice between widening and deepening – both need to happen.”
“There are those who don’t want it to succeed, but my view is: show me the alternative.
“It is the best hope of long-term normalising and breaking away from the sterile stand-off that we’ve had in the past.”
More than one million Israelis have reportedly visited Dubai since the Accords were signed and Fox was confident that the economic power of the pact would bolster any political agreement in the Middle East.
“The end-goal is to increase nation-to-nation links, business-to-business links and people-to-people links, with a view to understanding the commonality of interest, not least the common threat countries face from Iran.
“These initiatives become a valve where progress is made and it’s hard to go backwards.”
An expansion, Fox hoped, would show “there is an alternative future in the region based on mutual cooperation, respect and economic opportunity”.
