Early results from Thursday’s local elections in England and Wales suggest Jewish voters in the south have swung strongly against the Conservatives, although the trend is less clear further north.

Just to the north of London, Hertsmere, the council that covers the parliamentary constituency of Tory deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and includes areas with big Jewish populations such as Bushey and Borehamwood, saw Conservative losses to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

After decades of Tory rule, Hertsmere now has no party in overall control. The result suggests that in the London commuter belt suburbs with strong Jewish communities, Jewish voters may have been reassured that Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has begun to fulfil his promise to eradicate antisemitism from the party, and are less fearful of Labour success – although the Lib Dems were also big winners.

In the Kersall and Broughton Park ward in Salford, which has the country’s highest percentage of Jewish voters, the Tory candidate Ari Leitner increased his party’s share of the vote by 2.9 percentage points, polling 58.6 per cent of the total vote. According to the 2021 census, 41.5 per cent of the ward’s voters are Jewish.

Salford council overall was held by Labour. In its Broughton ward, which is 17.7 per cent Jewish, the Labour vote increased by 16 percentage points and the Tory vote fell by five. 

The biggest swing from the Tories to Labour in the north appeared to be in the 22.2 per cent Jewish Pilkington Park ward of Bury, where preliminary counting suggested Labour would win by around n400 votes. In an election in the same ward last year, Labour lost by one vote.

Bury’s 5.7 per cent Unsworth ward was a Labour hold, but the party’s vote shre increased by almost five points. The Tories’ share fell by 9.5 points.

However, a swing to Labour in the 11.2 per cent Jewish ward of Alwoodley in Leeds, where it had been tipped for success,  was not enough to take the seat from the Conservatives. Meanwhile two wards with large Jewish electorates in Gateshead, Bridges and Saltwell, saw falls in the Labour vote share, of 3.1 and 8.8 points respectively. 

The fall in the Tory vote in the 11 Hertsmere wards with big Jewish electorates was uneven, but almost universal. In Elstree, which is 21.2 per cent Jewish, it was down by just 3.1 points, to 68.8 per cent, although Labour’s share rose by 7.4 per points to 22.6 per cent.

But in 28.2 per cent Jewish Bushey Park, the Conservative poll dropped 24.5 per cent. A Lib Dem surge – their vote was up 30.5 points to 56 per cent – saw them capture the ward.

The Tory vote in Hertsmere rose in only one ward, the 20.2 per cent Jewish Borehamwood Brookmeadow, where it was up 1.8 points to 43.1 per cent.

Elsewhere in the south, the Buckhurst Hill West ward of Epping Forest, which is 5.6 per cent Jewish, saw a 10 point increase in the Labour vote and a 3 per cent fall in the Tories’, but this was not enough to overturn a Conservative majority. In St Albans, the 6.1 per cent Jewish Park Street ward recorded falls in both Tory and Labour votes, and the Lib Dems held the seat.

The biggest swing from the Tories to Labour in the north appeared to be in the 22.2 per cent Jewish Pilkington Park ward of Bury, where preliminary counting suggested Labour would win by around 400 votes. In an election in the same ward last year, Labour lost by one vote.

The Labour vote also rose there, by 10.8 points and held by the Conservatives.

Labour sources are suggesting that in other areas of the country with substantial Jewish electorates where results will not be declared until later today, the Tories will lose out to both Labour and the Lib Dems.  

Elsewhere in the south, the Buckhurst Hill West ward of Epping Forest, which is 5.6 per cent Jewish, saw a 10 point increase in the Labour vote and a 3 per cent fall in the Tories’, but this was not enough to overturn a Conservative majority. In St Albans, the 6.1 per cent Jewish Park Street ward recorded falls in both Tory and Labour votes, and the Lib Dems held the seat.

His analysis was echoed by the Jewish Labour Movement, whose spokesman said there was evidence that tactical voting had cost the Tories Hertsmere. He added: “These results build on the excellent showing we had last year in areas with large Jewish electorates such as the London borough of Barnet, and they suggest that Jewish voters are coming back to the party.”