The double bus attacks in Jerusalem on Wednesday may have been an attempt to provoke a harsh reaction from the Israeli government, a former Israeli Defence Forces intelligence official has said. 

Avi Melamed, who served as an advisor to Jerusalem’s mayor during the First and Second Intifadas, said that the blasts, which killed one person and left at least 13 more injured, warned the government against a counter-reaction.

In an interview with The Jerusalem Press Club (JPC), he suggested the attack was “somewhat different from previous ones, that we kind of got used to seeing in the last couple of years, namely mostly stabbing attacks or random shooting carried out by individuals”. This week’s attacks were ”more likely planned and coordinated attacks”, he said. 

Mr Melamed added: “The locations were chosen obviously following some sort of intelligence gathering.

“It’s not done by somebody that just woke up this morning and decided to detonate [at] bus stops.”

In a reference to the spate of unrest between 2000 and 2005 which led to the casualties of 3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis, he said: “It’s yet not the Second Intifada.”

 Mr Melamed was also keen to highlight the Palestinian Authority's constraint in handling one of the West Bank's worst periods of unrest since 2015.

He warned it would be “very unwise of Israel to further destabilise the Palestinian Authority which already is struggling (by offering) big counter-reaction” to the attack, which marked the first bombings carried out on Israeli civilians since the 2016 Jerusalem bus bombing.

He said he did not predict a response on the scale of 2002’s Operation Defensive Shield, but added it seemed “very clear” those behind Wednesday’s attacks hoped for “some sort of rash reaction”, as initially suggested by Far Right Israeli politician Itamar Ben-Gvir. Following the attacks, the Jewish Power party leader,  appointed to the newly-created Security Minister role on Friday, tweeted that “we must exact a price from terrorism”.

The minister said Israel “must return to the targeted killings” and “impose a curfew on the village from which the terrorists came”.

Mr Melamed warned that such a strong reaction “may lead to further destabilisation of the situation in Palestinian territories controlled by the Palestinian Authority”.

He added: “The wise thing for Israel to do is not to play to the hand of that perpetrators or whoever planned the terror attacks, and not do something that will further destabilise the current very fragile reality of the Palestinian Authority.”

The terror expert said he doubted the latest wave of violence would prompt a corresponding “burst of violence” in the Gaza Strip.

He said: “That’s not Hamas' interest, this isn't Israel’s interest. I would say that in the end of the day, I would assume that the Israeli next steps would be mostly confiding to some more intelligence/pinpoint operative activities, as it should be in this case.”

But, he warned, Tehran “has a lot of interest to ignite as much as possible the Israeli-Palestinian arena, although I don’t foresee any escalation or deterioration following that attack this morning”.

Also speaking to the JPC, Commander (res.) Dr. Reuven Berko offered some specific recommendations for the incoming administration.

The former advisor on Arab Affairs for the District Police Chief, urged the Israeli government to “act in the same momentum as they did”, adding:

“We should keep separating the terror organisations from the ordinary population, but on the other hand, we should punish very, very, very, very seriously those involved - demolish the houses, take the identity cards, and put in serious prisons, penalise those who were involved.”

He suggested that there had been “weakness” on the part of the courts, “by punishing very easy punishments those who were involved in terror attacks, not only Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza but also from the Galilee and the Negev as well”.

He continued: “So, this is something that we should take into account - increasing and be more serious in our approach towards terror or towards Arab criminals that are heating the internal security of the state of Israel.”