Sinwar documents reveal scenarios for Israel’s elimination

Nevertheless, the report warns that “if Hamas manages to recover and receives support from Iran, it cannot be ruled out that it will once again treat the idea of ‘destroying Israel’ as an actionable plan in the future”.

Hamas’s rejection of Israel’s existence was a given ever since the terrorist organisation’s founding, said the report.

However, the Islamist group was aware of its limitations, but in recent years, a dramatic shift took place.

The documents seized in Gaza show that over the past decade, Hamas began formulating a practical strategy to bring about the end of the State of Israel.

A document titled The Movement’s Strategy 2013–2017 framed the confrontation with Israel primarily in defensive terms, addressing potential Israeli attacks from the air and sea. It advocated for “resistance” through a “realistic plan,” including an intifada in the West Bank, an uprising among Israeli Arabs, and targeting Jews in international forums.

Building on this, in a letter dated June 5, 2021, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar – who masterminded the October 7 terrorist attacks – and his senior cohorts Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa wrote to Quds Force commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, stating their objective: “The great victory and the removal of the cancer,” referring to Israel’s elimination.

“We will never close our eyes, rest, or remain silent until we achieve this sacred goal,” they declared. They sought to acquire $500 million (£402 million) over two years.

The letter read: “Brother Mujahid Commander, to achieve these great objectives, through which we will change the face of the universe, with Allah’s help, we desperately need financial assistance of $20 million per month for two years, totalling $500 million.

"We are certain that by the end of these two years—or even during them, Allah willing—we will uproot this distorted entity. Together, we will change the region and, ultimately, Allah willing, this dark era in our nation’s history.”

In another letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the three men wrote: “This imaginary entity is weaker than people think. With Allah’s help, your support, and the backing of our nation, we are capable of uprooting it and removing it as soon as possible. We trust in Allah that we are close to fulfilling this divine promise, from which there is no escape.”

Sinwar also sent a letter to Saeed Izadi, head of the Quds Force’s “Palestine Branch,” in July 2021, declaring that they were on the verge of a “tremendous strategic victory” with major regional and global implications. Hamas was “on the threshold of victory and the fulfilment of Allah’s promise,” he wrote.

Two months after “Operation Guardian of the Walls,” Sinwar wrote to Izadi: “Everyone has noticed the strategic shift in the movement’s policy and direction under Abu al-Abd’s [Ismail Haniyeh‘s] leadership, which corrected many past imbalances.

"While we understand that we have not achieved all our goals, there is no doubt that we have made significant progress in the desired direction. In the coming years, we have a great opportunity to complete this journey, consolidating the Jerusalem Alliance, the Axis of the Second Promise, and assembling the necessary tools to achieve this.”

A year later, in a letter to Haniyeh on June 19, 2022, Sinwar outlined a practical strategic scenario for a multi-front war aimed at Israel’s destruction.

He opened by stating: “Since the ceasefire in ‘Sword of Jerusalem’ [Hamas’s name for ‘Guardian of the Walls’], our jihad fighters have been preparing at full speed and without hesitation. They are confident that their readiness for a major strategic battle that will reshape the region and its rules of engagement is nearly complete. They are fully prepared to launch immediately if Allah wills it.”

Sinwar then outlined three scenarios for “unifying the fronts and seizing the opportunity”:

The Grand Strategic Campaign: The entire pro-Iranian axis, except for Iran itself, would attack Israel to bring about its end.

Sinwar considered this an achievable goal if Hezbollah possessed even a third of its rumoured capabilities and fully joined the battle, alongside Shi’ite militias from Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.

He also mentioned additional elements, including terrorists on the Jordanian border and uprisings in the West Bank and among Israeli Arabs.

He wrote: “The banner of the campaign must be Al-Aqsa and Al-Quds [Jerusalem] because this is a nuclear trigger for the entire region. The timing should coincide with a Jewish holiday when their incursions into Al-Aqsa [i.e., the Temple Mount], attacks and Talmudic prayers increase. Passover, which overlaps in some way with Ramadan, is the most suitable, but other Jewish holidays could ignite the explosion.”

The Intermediate Battle Scenario: Hamas would play the central role in a conflict against Israel, while Hezbollah would participate partially, along with forces from other fronts, including Judea and Samaria.

Sinwar believed this would cause significant harm to Israel, prompting many Israelis to emigrate and leading to the “liberation” of the West Bank and the release of Palestinian prisoners. He argued that this would lay the groundwork for Israel’s eventual destruction.

The Minimal Scenario: Hezbollah would not initially participate directly. Hamas would bear the primary burden, supported by “the resistance axis” and terrorists from Jordan and Syria.

According to the document, this was the minimum scenario Hamas could accept, requiring only Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah‘s approval, without needing authorisation from Khamenei.

Sinwar wrote: “This is a necessary scenario in which we throw all our forces into igniting the situation in the West Bank and inside [the pre-1967 lines].

“Meanwhile, the party [Hezbollah] ensures our forces can operate with increasing efficiency from Lebanon, while Quds Force elements engage from Iraq and Yemen, and guerrilla activities escalate in Syria and Jordan.

"The party will not participate directly, but it guarantees the activation of everything mentioned above while maintaining the highest level of readiness to escalate to medium or high-intensity conflict as developments dictate. This is the minimum scenario we can agree upon.”

In practice, Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias played a limited role in the conflict, with Hamas bearing most of the burden. Sinwar’s hopes for broader participation from other actors did not materialise.

Later, in July 2022, then-Hamas political bureau chief Haniyeh informed Sinwar of a meeting with Izadi and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

At the meeting, Hamas representatives presented their attack scenarios. According to Haniyeh, Nasrallah expressed support for the first scenario—the “Grand Battle”—and even described it as a “realistic scenario.” It was also agreed that the matter would be raised with Khamenei.

Haniyeh wrote to Sinwar: “We presented our vision for the path forward, explaining that we had studied the issue within our circles in Gaza and the West Bank.

"Regarding our brothers abroad, they are currently conducting a general analysis of the conflict with the enemy, but they are not yet fully informed of the detailed scenarios and vision.

"We presented the first and second scenarios from your letter but did not mention the third. After a long and in-depth dialogue, ... Nasrallah’s position was clear and firm…”