A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, which includes the release of hostages, was finally signed last night, just hours after a last-minute “crisis” over its provisions.
With the gaps between the sides finally bridged, a total of 33 hostages, out of the 98 held by Hamas in Gaza, are set to be freed during an initial 42-day period.
But they will be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including some convicted of terror offences, currently held in Israeli jails (though none who participated in the October 7 attacks).
Ilan Borreda, former assistant commissioner of the Israel Prison Service, said in a press briefing on Thursday that the security services should assume that many of these detainees could resume terrorist activity once freed.
“Maybe not all of them will because some are old, but Israel should be prepared. If they are released to settlements, they could continue to engage in terror, but it will be easier to catch them again there. If they are released to Gaza, Turkey, Qatar or Lebanon, it will be harder,” Borreda said.
There is a chilling precedent behind Borreda’s warning
Former Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar was one of 1027 Palestinians released as part of the 2011 agreement to free captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
He would go on to become the architect of the October 7, 2023, massacre before being killed by IDF troops last October.
Borreda claimed that the Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences now facing release would have been convicted on at least one count of murder. “But it doesn’t mean that the others are less dangerous, because the younger ones were part of Hamas’s military division either in settlements or in Gaza,” he said.
“We focus on the prisoners sentenced to life because we see them as the highest prize [for Hamas],” he added.
Security concerns have also arisen over the withdrawal of IDF troops from Gaza.
According to the deal, Israeli forces are to gradually withdraw from strategic locations, including the Philadelphi Corridor along Gaza’s Egyptian border. At the same time, the Rafah Crossing to Sinai will be opened to allow a massive influx of aid into the Strip.
However, during its operations in Rafah in July, the IDF claimed to have uncovered an extensive network of tunnels running under the border with Egypt.
As a consequence, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz vowed that the IDF would maintain security in the area.
“This war reflects a terrible Israeli failure, and of course when the ceasefire begins, it will be easier for Hamas to retake some areas currently under the IDF[’s control],” Maj Gen. (res) Giora Eiland, a former head of the Israeli National Security Council, told JNS.
“Hamas has got all the necessary supplies from Israel, which enabled it to become richer by reselling humanitarian aid to the population at a profit, and rehired fighters to replace those killed,” he added.
Brig Gen. (res) Nitzan Nuriel, former head of the Counter-Terrorism bureau in the Prime Minister’s Office, added that the IDF will have to monitor Hamas’s efforts to reestablish its infrastructure closely.
“To produce rockets, Hamas needs to perform experiments. We need to make sure not to let this happen, so they cannot start to build up their power again,” he said.
“I believe we will duplicate actions we are taking in Lebanon, where we see Hezbollah trying to recover during the ceasefire. We attack their convoys and weapons storage facilities.
As for resuming the war against Hamas after the inital agreement ends, Nuriel said that Israel could do so but it will largely depend on the United States.
“For instance, some progress between the Americans and the Saudis on normalisation with Israel could lead us to take a less aggressive approach,” he said.
