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October 7 could happen again, says IDF intelligence officer

The threat from Hamas is degraded but not destroyed, according to a Gaza-based officer

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The aftermath of October 7 at kibbutz Be'eri (Getty)

Israel is still facing the prospect of a widespread raid targeting kibbutzim and other population centres, according to an IDF intelligence officer.

“The threat of a wide-scale raid like the one that occurred on Oct. 7 exists, but in low probability,” according to the intelligence officer of the Israel Defense Forces' Gaza Division, who spoke anonymously a conference last week for the military security coordinators of the Israeli communities along the Gaza border.

"It’s a capability that is hard to diminish,” he said, according to the report.

He emphasised however that the situation in the border communities today bore little resemblance to that prior to October 7, 2023.

"Today there are three divisions inside Gaza, and forces deployed in the [Israeli border] communities. The IDF is deployed on a much wider scale than it was on Oct. 7 and Hamas was badly beaten all over the Strip,” he said.

The officer’s statements come against the backdrop of  reports according to which a detailed schedule for the return of residents of 10 out of 13 Gaza Envelope towns has been outlined for the first time in a government situation assessment.

According to Channel 12, the residents are scheduled to return to their homes by Sep. 1, 2025, with the beginning of the new school year.

The designated kibbutzim and towns are Nir Yitzhak, Netiv HaAsara, Sufa, Kerem Shalom, Ein HaShlosha, Nirim, Re’im, Kissufim, Nahal Oz and Holit.

In all of the above communities, restoration efforts are still ongoing. Government officials have estimated that the works will be completed by the Sept. 1 deadline, according to Channel 12.

On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel’s south, murdering roughly 1,200 people and kidnapping 251 more into the Gaza Strip. The deadliest single-day attack in the Jewish state’s history has led it to a multi-front war against Iran’s proxies or backed militant groups in the Mideast region.

With a truce ending the 14-month war against Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon on Nov. 27, Hebrew media reported on Monday that a potential deal for the release of the remaining Hamas hostages is nearing completion.

Mediator Qatar has handed Israel and Hamas a “final” draft agreement, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters. A breakthrough was reached in Doha after midnight following talks between Israel’s spy chiefs, President-elect Trump’s Middle East envoy and Qatar’s prime minister, the official said.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Hamas is reconstituting its terror army in the Gaza Strip, recruiting up to thousands of new Palestinian youngsters into its torn ranks.

After a relatively long period of almost no rockets being launched from the Hamas-ruled territory, the terror group managed to fire some 20 rockets into Israel in the past 14 days.

Moreover, 10 Israeli soldiers fell in battle in the area of Beit Hanoun in northern Gaza over the past week.

“We are in a situation where the pace at which Hamas is rebuilding itself is higher than the pace that the [Israel Defense Forces are] eradicating them,” Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli brigadier general, was quoted as saying by the WSJ.

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