No end to Israeli coalition deadlock in sight as hopes turn to Gantz to form government

Eleven years ago, on October 26, 2008, foreign minister and leader of the then ruling Kadima party, Tzipi Livni, informed president Shimon Peres that she had failed to form a coalition.

That was the last time a politician other than Benjamin Netanyahu had the mandate to lead a government in Israel.

On Wednesday evening, as Benny Gantz arrived at the president’s residence in Jerusalem to receive the mandate from Reuven Rivlin, a political era ended in Israel.

Mr Netanyahu is still prime minister, leading what has been for the last ten months a caretaker government, but for the first time a political rival has a lead over him.

For the next twenty-eight days, at least.

Mr Gantz is now the designated prime minister, though that title doesn’t officially exist in Israel. But he still has a lot of work to make it into the little villa on Balfour Street and send the Netanyahu family packing.

A majority of Knesset members have refused to support a new Netanyahu government but there is no prospect of them sitting together around Mr Gantz’s cabinet table either, as the Joint List will not join a government — certainly not one of which Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu is also a member.

There are only two scenarios in which he can emerge from this four week period as Israel’s new prime minister. The first, which is being bandied about by Mr Netanyahu and his allies, is reaching a confidence and supply deal with the Joint List (similar to the one reached in 2017 between the Conservatives and the DUP).

This deal would entail increased social investments in the Arab sector, the chairmanship of a couple of Knesset committees and detailed plans on matters such as urban planning and policing. In return, enough of the Joint List MKs would have to vote in favour of a Gantz-lead minority government and the rest to abstain.

However, it is unclear whether Mr Gantz and his colleagues in Blue and White are willing to form a government that will be seen as dependent on Arab votes.

Even if they are, will Mr Lieberman, whose MKs are crucial to any such scenario, agree to cooperate as well? For now, he is still demanding that Likud and Blue and White form a national-unity government.

That is the second scenario.

On paper, the Knesset arithmetic is very similar to the stalemate after the 1984 election when neither Likud or Labour could muster a majority.

The solution brokered by president Chaim Herzog was a “rotation” national-unity government in which Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir split the prime minister’s term between them. That would be the natural solution and few in politics are disputing it.

But there’s one stumbling block. In 1984, Shamir, the incumbent, made way for Peres, who served the first two years, as leader of the larger party. Mr Netanyahu will not make way.

He insists that due to the increasing Iranian threat facing Israel, changing prime minister now would make no sense. His allies speak of Mr Gantz needing “mentoring” first.

The real reason of course is that Mr Netanyahu, who could be facing criminal charges in a matter of weeks, wants to fight the indictments as prime minister. He still hopes to win a vote on immunity and, failing that, resignation is something he could use to barter a plea-bargain.

And if that doesn’t work, as serving prime minister he goes on trial in Jerusalem with three judges — whom he believes will go easier on him than the single judge in the Tel Aviv district court, the venue of most financial trials for ordinary citizens.

Mr Netanyahu is happy to run down the clock on Mr Gantz’s four weeks and the three-week period after that when any MK can try and form a government. Because after that, it’s back to the polls and he gets another three or four months as caretaker prime minister.

Assuming Mr Gantz doesn’t back down, the only way a national-unity government could be formed is if Likud changes its leader.

The prospect of Mr Netanyahu losing the leadership still seems remote but murmurings of mutiny are bubbling closer to the surface. Not just in tweets by the perennial challenger Gideo Sa’ar, who has already stated that he will run in the next leadership primaries.

Two other big beasts have held massive rallies in the last two weeks. Former Jerusalem mayor and now Likud MK Nir Barkat launched his autobiography with three thousand “close friends” three weeks ago and last week, foreign minister Yisrael Katz hosted four thousand Likud members in an orchard outside his home.

Both made certain to pledge allegiance to the prime minister in their speeches (Sara Netanyahu was even guest of honour at Mr Barkat’s party) and they are always careful to say that their leadership ambitions are only “after Netanyahu”.

But at both events the talk was of how the party’s heavy-hitters are positioning themselves. If Mr Netanyahu is indicted or it looks like Mr Gantz is cobbling together a minority government, that race may be on sooner rather than later.