Israel strikes Gaza again, but can Hamas ever be defeated?

It's worth asking whether Israel’s new round of strikes will be different than those in the past, and whether Israel can finally come up with a clear plan for what to do in Gaza. The challenge is complex. There are two million people in Gaza and Hamas has been recruiting to refill its ranks from losses last year. Hamas may not have the long range rockets it once had that could reach Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. However, the group still has some of its tunnels and thousands of fighters. Hamas is also backed by other terrorist groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad. This means that there are tens of thousands of armed men in Gaza.

Hamas emerged on January 20 after the ceasefire came into affect and it has shown that it can easily return to run Gaza. During the hostage releases, which happened every week during the first phase of the ceasefire, Hamas choreographed the release of the hostages, using them to celebrate what it says is a victory. Israel withdrew forces from areas in Gaza during January and February. If Israel sends forces back into Gaza, they will have to re-take areas they already took. In some cases Israel has taken areas in Gaza several times, only to hand them back each time. For instance, the IDF went into northern Gaza between October 27, 2023 and the spring of 2024. It went into areas such as Jabaliya and Shejeiya, and then left. The IDF then went back into Jabaliya two more times. In late 2024 there were still thousands of terrorists in the area. This illustrates the complexity of fighting in Gaza. The enemy always returns. The enemy always recruits.

What can a new campaign achieve? Is Israel ready to go into Gaza and completely remove Hamas? History has shown that Israel has preferred accommodation with Hamas, leaving it in charge of Gaza. At the same time Israel’s current leadership says they don’t want the Palestinian Authority to run Gaza. In any vacuum in power in Gaza, Hamas will always fill the vacuum. With no alternative, it seems Hamas will never leave.

Will making Hamas weaker work? It hasn’t worked in the past. In May 2021, after ten days of fighting, Israel’s Prime Minister said that the IDF had "set Hamas back by many years.” The IDF believed airstrikes on the Hamas “metro” of tunnels had been effective. However, history has shown the strikes were not effective and Hamas rapidly grew in strength. In March 2024 the IDF also assessed that it had “dismantled”  20 out of the  24 Hamas battalions in Gaza. This painted a picture of Hamas largely defeated a year ago. However, Hamas rebuilt the battalions.

Israel will need to break this cycle if it wants to change things in Gaza. Airstrikes do not win wars. Precision airstrikes are a false prophet of victory. One can strike at “command and control” and various commanders, but Hamas has shown that it does not collapse. It has suffered blows for decades and it never collapsed.
The challenge Israel faces is trying to figure out how to do things differently in Gaza, or find a way to achieve new results. For instance, can the new round of strikes get Hamas to return to the peace table and free hostages? Hamas continues to hold almost 60 hostages, alive and dead. Hamas has shown in the past it always wants to hold onto hostages for years. From 2014 it held four hostages in Gaza; two living civilians named Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed; as well as two bodies of Israeli soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin. The bodies of Goldin and Shaul are still held. Hamas released Mengistu and Sayed in February 2025.

Another challenge may be for the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff helped get the ceasefire done in January. However, he has been busy dealing with other issues, such as Trump’s opening to Russia over a potential Ukraine deal. Hamas has been stalling and has not taken the Witkoff offer to find a way to bring Hamas and Israel back to the table. Trump has said Israel can do what it wants in Gaza and he has support “hell” breaking loose in the past. However he seems to have walked back some comments about resettling Gazans abroad. In comments with Ireland’s leader Michael Martin on March 12, Trump said that “nobody is expelling any Palestinians.”

Israel doesn’t have a clear way to re-settle Gazans from Gaza. Even voluntary resettlement would be long and complex. Reports in Israeli media have suggested that Somalia, Sudan and Syria could be places for Gazans to go. Somalia and Sudan are close to being failed states, divided by civil war, and suffering extreme poverty. Why would Gazans want to go there? How can countries that can’t govern themselves accept a number of people from Gaza? Syria is also still divided and suffering from the affects of a 14 years of civil war. Clearly none of the reports about re-settling Gazans are serious.

At the same time, an initiative by Egypt to help reconstruction in Gaza has not received any support in Israel. Even though some Arab states are now stepping up to back the Egyptian plan. However, with a clear vision for Gaza and a way to remove Hamas, it’s unclear how Israel or the Arab states can accomplish their plans. It will take a lot more than airstrikes to remove Hamas.