Israel Briefing Day 513: The ceasefire ends – what happens now?

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The Israel-Hamas ceasefire expired yesterday, leaving confusion over what will happen now.

Currently, there is no sign of renewed fighting and Jerusalem says it does not plan to restart military operations immediately, but the IDF has prepared for all possibilities.

There is also bitter disagreement between hostage families, who are resolute that Israel must negotiate the scheduled next phase of the ceasefire, and the government, which is refusing to do so as it would permanently end the war.

Instead, ministers have endorsed an American plan to extend the ceasefire based broadly on the arrangement in place until now. This means hostage releases and the freeing of prisoners, but no talks on the long-term future of Gaza and no Israeli commitment to fully withdraw.

In formal terms, this would mean an extension of Phase One without advancing into talks for Phase Two. Hostage families argue that this would put their loved ones at risk, as it is a departure from the roadmap negotiated with Hamas, and the terror group is resolutely rejecting the American-Israeli plan, fearing the loss of the leverage holding hostages gives it in negotiations

The Prime Minister’s Office has taken the stance that a tough approach to Hamas works best, and this morning announced that it is pressuring the group to accept its path by stopping aid trucks entering Gaza until it falls in line. Netanyahu’s bureau released a statement saying: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided that, as of this morning, the entry of all goods and supplies to the Gaza Strip will be halted… If Hamas persists in its refusal [to agree to the Israeli-American plan], there will be additional consequences.”

Under the proposal Hamas would release half of the remaining hostages, living and dead, at the start of the extension period. The other half would then be freed at its conclusion if a move into Phase Two is agreed.

Hamas has lambasted the plan and insists on immediately moving to Phase Two, which would include negotiations on a lasting truce and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Extending Phase 1 is especially attractive to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the decisions required for Phase 2, such as on a plan for Gaza’s long-term future, could tear apart his coalition and collapse his government.

Meanwhile, Hamas has released a new video showing the torment of hostage Eitan Horn as he was forced to stay in captivity while his brother Yair went free. The siblings were shown hugging, and Yair said: “They are making me leave my little brother here, to die.” Eitan replied: “It makes no sense to separate families. Take everyone out.” The video also constituted a sign of life for a third man, hostage Nimrod Cohen as, even though his face was blurred, his family were able to identify him by a tattoo.

Back in Israel, Tzachi Idan, a dead hostage whose body was returned last week, was buried on Friday next to his daughter Maayan, who was murdered in the October 7 attack. Idan’s sister Noam said: “I fought to bring Tzachi home, but today I say sorry that you returned in a coffin instead of on your feet.”

Ilan Dalal, father of hostage Guy Gilboa Dalal, has also spoken about the misery of seeing his son and another hostage being forced to watch their fellow captives being freed.

“Hamas, in its cruelty, forced them to watch their friends being released from captivity and then returned them back to the tunnels and darkness. From the testimonies of those who have returned, we know they are experiencing physical and mental abuse, and their health is deteriorating,” he said.

And former hostage Eli Sharabi accused far-right former minister Itamar Ben Gvir of negatively affecting the treatment of him and other hostages in Gaza by making public statements on Israel’s treatment of Palestinian prisoners. He said that after such statements, terrorists would treat hostages even worse than normal.

In an interview with Channel 13, Ben Gvir dismissed the criticism as “an echo of Hamas propaganda.”

Elsewhere, it was revealed that the Prime Minister’s Office received an IDF warning about unusual terrorist activity on the Gaza border in the early hours of October 7, 2023, but failed to take action. The PMO made the admission to Channel 12 when commenting on the investigation into security failures during the attack.

And in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has ordered the authorities to speed up the delivery of around $4 billion in military aid to Israel. In a parallel development, the White House is to sell $3 billion worth of weapons to Israel in a new agreement, which comes on the heels of another recent deal worth $8 billion. The new sale, pushed through by Trump while bypassing full congressional approval, includes bombs, warheads and Caterpillar D9 bulldozers.

Finally, Israel is lobbying America to keep Russian military bases in Syria, according to Reuters. Israeli officials are reportedly concerned that Turkey’s growing influence in Syria is a threat to Israel and prefer Russian presence. The Reuters report states that Israel presented this stance to US officials in February and circulated a white paper outlining its position.

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