The news from Qatar of an imminent hostage release deal raises the hopes for families who they will finally be reunited with their loved ones after more than 460 days. It would also start a healing process for wider Israeli society. Several hostages released over a year ago in the November 2023 deal have spoken of their inability to fully recuperate while other hostages they know remain in captivity. For keen observers, the contours of the deal appear to closely resemble previous efforts that have been on the table since May last year, which begs the question: why now?
THE TRUMP FACTOR
Donald Trump has been clear since his re-election that he wanted the hostage deal off the agenda by the time he took office. Partly he saw this as Biden’s mess to clean up, while he prefers to focus on his own agenda once he’s back in the Oval Office.
Trump understands that his current ability to threaten is probably at its peak – especially as all US allies in the region are “on notice”, and keen to restart their relations with Trump in an optimal position. Indeed it was the unscheduled arrival of Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, last weekend that galvanised Benjamin Netanyahu and saw him send the most senior negotiators to Qatar the next day. That delegation included the head of the Mossad, the head of the Shin Bet, an IDF general and the prime minister’s senior diplomatic adviser.
The Israeli government has high hopes of the 47th President. Most pressing is the Iranian nuclear file. And while some dream of a deal with the Saudis, others on the right of the coalition hope to revisit the prospect of extending sovereignty in the West Bank. All of this goes through Trump and starts with a hostage deal.
IRANIAN AXIS IN DECLINE
When Yahya Sinwar conceived his plan of flooding Israel on October 7, 2023, he anticipated that it would precipitate an all-out attack against Israel that would irrevocably change the regional constellation. He was partly right, but not in the way he hoped. Qasem Suleimani, the IRGC Commander assassinated by Trump five years ago, was the architect of the plan to surround Israel with a ring of fire. That has now been extinguished. Unlike October 7, which caught Israel by surprise and exposed Israeli hubris, Israel’s security establishment had been planning its campaign against Hezbollah for over a decade. The plan, expertly executed, included the audacious exploding pagers and walkie-talkies and followed the decimation of Hezbollah’s senior leadership also led to the substantial reduction in Hezbollah’s military capacity. All this has left Iran licking its wounds and has isolated Hamas. The exception to this is the continued attacks from the Houthis in Yemen. Here Israeli intelligence (that had previously left intelligence gathering on Yemen to the US and UK) is steadily building its bank of targets, while the air force, having attacked four times so far, is gaining valuable operational experience carrying out long-range strikes.
HAMAS ISOLATED AND DEFEATED
To an extent, Hamas was defeated as a military force several months ago in the sense that all of the 24 battalions that existed in the summer of 2023 have had their command and control structure disrupted, if not destroyed.
The IDF now controls all of the Gaza Strip. It is currently deployed along the strategic Philadelphi Corridor on the Egyptian border and the tactical crossing parallel to Netzarim that bisects the Strip and isolates the northern part. It is also establishing a 1km deep buffer zone across the north and western perimeter adjacent to the Israeli communities.
Israel has successfully targeted the most senior Hamas commanders both in Gaza and outside. What remains of Hamas is a shadow of its former self. Sinwar’s younger brother Muhamed is one of the only recognised leaders to still be alive inside Gaza. Considered even more extreme and less sophisticated than his brother, he is coordinating Hamas’s negotiating position with their exiled external leadership.
The IDF is wrapping up its campaign in northern Gaza. Prior to October 7, from the higher floors of the tall buildings in Jabalya, Bet Hanoun and Bet Lahiya you could see into southern Israel. More than 400 of these buildings were booby-trapped with explosives leading to their demolition. As such, this menacing spectre has also been removed.
THE LIMITS OF POWER
Although Hamas’s army has been dismantled, Hamas fighters remain committed to their cause. The IDF has repeatedly seen that in places where they operated and then withdrew, Hamas has been able to reconstitute its fighting forces. No longer as a military power, but by operating as terror cells, utilising what remains of their underground network they have been able to plant explosive devices, carry out anti-tank missile and sniper fire and even launch mortars and rockets.
Despite Israeli dominance, 53 IDF soldiers have been killed in northern Gaza in the past three months. In total, more than 400 have lost their lives since the start of the ground incursion. There is a feeling among some in the military that the ground campaign has run its course and treading water has come at an unacceptably high price. Since August, when the IDF retrieved the bodies of six hostages that had been executed, it became clear that there was no real military rescue option that wouldn’t place the hostages in mortal danger. This conclusion also helped move the dial in favour of an agreement.
Richard Pater is the director of Israel and Middle East think tank Bicom
