There was a prophetic joke doing the rounds on Israeli WhatsApp groups: ahead of last weekend it suggested prescience that the Torah portion of the week, Noah (in Hebrew two letters), matched the initials “Netanyahu returns”. This week, those who said “Go” (the popular logo of anti-Netanyahu demonstrators) can “go themselves” (Lech Lacha). Two weeks later, we have “The Life of Sara” (an allusion to the dominance of Mrs Netanyahu).
This may all come to pass. At the time of writing, Bibi Netanyahu does indeed look to be in the driving seat and best placed to form a right-wing-religious coalition. However, nothing will be settled until the final vote is counted and even then it will take some weeks for a government to be formed. Such is the margin around the threshold for gaining Knesset seats (3.25 per cent) that the left-wing Meretz party could just get over the line. Doing so would alter seat distribution, possibly affecting the balance of power.
Likud under Netanyahu’s leadership remains convincingly the largest party, although perhaps not quite as large as he had hoped. Many first-time voters fell for the charm and appeal of Religious Zionism’s telegenic and provocative Itamar Ben Gvir. His success, as noted by the veteran Israeli commentator Nahum Barnea, comes from two types of Israelis: those who vote for him because they are scared and think he will protect them, and those that are angry and relate to his rhetoric as a way to “legitimise their own violent tendencies” -- a tragic combination timed around the recent uptick in terror attacks.
In the lead-up to the elections, Netanyahu’s political acumen shone through: he operated behind the scenes to solidify a technical bloc between Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, adding the homophobic Noam Party. Netanyahu also pressured the bickering constituent parts of United Torah Judaism to remain united despite their own internal turf war. In comparison, Lapid failed to persuade Labour and Meretz, or the Arab parties to unite. The failure on the left could mean six seats’ worth of votes fail to register. In addition, all four right-wing parties signed voter surplus agreements that ensured no votes on the right would be lost (apart from Ayelet Shaked, who despite her best efforts, has been ignored and sidelined).
Terror attacks have historically always moved Israelis to vote to the right; that appears to be the case in light of the latest surge in attacks. The targeted campaign of Likud, honing in on getting their base out to vote, looks to have paid off and is at least partly responsible for such a healthy overall turnout. To his further good fortune, there has been limited recent exposure of Netanyahu’s criminal trial, with one of the key witnesses recently cancelling his anticipated appearance on medical grounds.
Some credit is due to interim Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who broke through his Yesh Latid party’s 20-seat glass ceiling. Disappointingly for Benny Gantz, his National Unity Party never captured the country’s attention. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot was meant to be the game-changer, but hardly made a splash.
Netanyahu appears in pole position to receive the mandate from President Herzog and will then have four weeks to form a government. He is expected to first lock in his natural partners, the ultra-Orthodox and the hard right, and then invite others to join. In light of the weighty issues on Israel’s agenda the president may well appeal privately to both Gantz and even Lapid to reconsider their veto of Netanyahu. This might be followed by a public campaign in which a unity government would appear best placed to meet the range of issues the country faces.
Domestically, the next government will need to provide solutions to the cost of living, soaring house prices and the need to improve critical infrastructure. In security affairs, it must cope with the fallout from the failed talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, recalibrate Israel’s stance towards Russia-Ukraine in light of Iran’s involvement in the war, maintain deterrence versus Hezbollah and Hamas, and clamp down on violence in the West Bank. Other issues, including the strength of the Abraham Accords and the recently-improved ties with Tukey and Jordan, could once again become strained as a result of Ben Gvir’s presence at the cabinet table.
Although a long shot, a unity government would best reflect the countrywide consensus to deal with these challenges and provide much-needed stability.
Richard Pater is the Executive Director of Bicom (Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre). He lives in Jerusalem. www.bicom.org.uk
