There was a prophetic joke doing the rounds on Israeli WhatsApp groups: ahead of last weekend it suggested prescience that the Torah portion of the week, Noah (in Hebrew two letters), matched the initials “Netanyahu returns”. This week, those who said “Go” (the popular logo of anti-Netanyahu demonstrators) can “go themselves” (Lech Lacha). Two weeks later, we have “The Life of Sara” (an allusion to the dominance of Mrs Netanyahu).
This may all come to pass. At the time of writing, Bibi Netanyahu does indeed look to be in the driving seat and best placed to form a right-wing-religious coalition. However, nothing will be settled until the final vote is counted and even then it will take some weeks for a government to be formed. Such is the margin around the threshold for gaining Knesset seats (3.25 per cent) that the left-wing Meretz party could just get over the line. Doing so would alter seat distribution, possibly affecting the balance of power.
Likud under Netanyahu’s leadership remains convincingly the largest party, although perhaps not quite as large as he had hoped. Many first-time voters fell for the charm and appeal of Religious Zionism’s telegenic and provocative Itamar Ben Gvir. His success, as noted by the veteran Israeli commentator Nahum Barnea, comes from two types of Israelis: those who vote for him because they are scared and think he will protect them, and those that are angry and relate to his rhetoric as a way to “legitimise their own violent tendencies” -- a tragic combination timed around the recent uptick in terror attacks.
In the lead-up to the elections, Netanyahu’s political acumen shone through: he operated behind the scenes to solidify a technical bloc between Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, adding the homophobic Noam Party. Netanyahu also pressured the bickering constituent parts of United Torah Judaism to remain united despite their own internal turf war. In comparison, Lapid failed to persuade Labour and Meretz, or the Arab parties to unite. The failure on the left could mean six seats’ worth of votes fail to register. In addition, all four right-wing parties signed voter surplus agreements that ensured no votes on the right would be lost (apart from Ayelet Shaked, who despite her best efforts, has been ignored and sidelined).
