Bibi’s crunch coalition talks, Turkey blows hot and cold, Gantz issues Iran warning: This Week in Israeli news - The Jewish Chronicle

Herzog to invite Netanyahu to form government

Following the victory of his right-wing religious coalition in the 1 November elections, Benjamin Netanyahu will be invited to form a government by President Herzog this Sunday.

Talks remain ongoing between the religious and right-wing bloc, made up of Shas, United Torah Judaism, the Religious Zionist faction, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, and Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party. Following Sunday’s official invitation, Mr Netanyahu will have 28 days to form a government, with the ex-PM hoping to cement a deal to stabilise the country following its chaotic sequence of five general elections in under four years.

Mr Netanyahu’s ongoing trial for alleged corruption offences, a scandal that sparked his previous government’s collapse in March 2021, could also cause issues.

Some quarters have suggested the impending presence of hardliners such as Kahanist Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in the new Cabinet could threaten Israel’s ties with its key ally, the US.

While US President Joe Biden's phone call with Mr Netanyahu on 7 November came a few days too late for some, that the former "reaffirmed the strength of the U.S.-Israel bilateral partnership" was no surprise.

Indeed the US’ huge financial and intelligence ties with Israeli make any major shifts unlikely in the near future, whether or Washington expresses its opposition to any West Bank annexation plans.

Erdoğan wants “win-win diplomacy” with Israel

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has suggested that ties between Ankara and Jerusalem could continue to improve, despite Benjamin Netanyahu emerging as Israeli Prime Minister.

After Yair Lapid conceding the election to the Likud leader last Thursday, the Turkish premier told media that he expected a continued rapprochement with Israel regardless, explaining his hope of: “sustainably maintain our relations with Israel based on mutual respect for sensitivities and shared interests, no matter how the election turns out.

“As long as values are respected, I believe win-win diplomacy will benefit not only Turkey and Israel but also the entire region,” he went on.

Mr Erdoğan’s remarks came just days after then Defence Minister Benny Gantz touched down in Turkey ahead of Israel’s general election, underscoring the importance the outgoing administration placed on its ties with the West Asian republic.

Turkey was the first Muslim-majority nation to recognise Israel in March 1949, but their relationship has been a rocky one, with diplomatic ties only being fully normalised earlier this year.

While Mr Erdoğan also offered congratulations to Mr Netanyahu-and reaffirmed pre-existing plans to visit Israel-there is no certainty the pair's future relationship will remain steady. A previous low point was the 2010 Gaza flotilla incident in which over ten Turkish nationals died after Israeli forces raided a civilian convoy aiming at compromising the Gaza blockade. Mr Netanyahu later issued a public apology over the event, along with 20 million USD in compensation. In particular, the likely presence of far-right ministers in the new coalition’s Cabinet could easily lead Ankara and Jerusalem into clashes over rising West Bank tensions.

Economic ties could well endure any political rows, with Turkey witnessing a 448 per cent increase in Israeli tourists between January and September this year, representing a huge post-Covid and normalisation boom despite an alleged Iranian plot to kidnap Israeli tourists in Istanbul.

Gantz warns Netanyahu over Iran

While talks to return to the 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear capabilities have failed, the Islamic Republic’s program is more advanced than it has ever been, sparking long and immediate-term concerns about regional stability.

The Vienna stalemate will relieve Mr Netanyahu of the need to launch an aggressive PR campaign against the plan, but he will be keen to continue pressing his perspective: that any diplomatic negotiation with Iran is out of the question.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett previously complained of “total neglect” in government regarding Israel’s military options against Iran, complaining that Mr Netanyahu’s misplaced faith that the Trump administration would bomb Iranian nuclear sites had made Jerusalem complacent.

In somewhat conciliatory remarks, outgoing Defence Minister Gantz suggested that Netanyahu would be “level-headed” about any plans to launch Israeli strikes on Iran, but warned that Moscow’s strengthening bond with Tehran was providing a “boost” to its nuclear threat.

This comes after Saudi Arabia shared intelligence with the US at the beginning of the month, which suggested an Iranian attack against it was imminent.

Iran continues to accuse Saudi Arabia of colluding with both the US and Israel to undermine it, claiming that its recent wave of anti-government protests are down to foreign interference.