To say that it has been a whirlwind week in Israeli politics is probably unfair to whirlwinds. The machinations surrounding Israel's umpteenth election in the last few years are far less ordered than even the most chaotic weather events. In a shock to many, King Bibi Netanyahu is set to return to power next week, facing an embarrassment of issues from the uproar over his coalition partners, to a tense treaty with the Lebanese over drilling rights.

Bibi is Back

On Tuesday Israeli voters trod their well-worn path to the polls to vote in their fifth general election in under four years, a record that would make even the British Conservative party blush.

Yesh Atid’s incumbent Yair Lapid formally conceded defeat to ex-PM Netanyahu on Thursday evening, laying the groundwork for the Likud leader to regain the top job after 17 months in opposition.

Netanyahu’s right-wing religious bloc swept to the closet thing Israeli elections have to a resounding victory with 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, comfortably collapsing Lapid and Bennett's outgoing rainbow coalition.

But Netanyahu, who remains on trial for alleged corruption offences, will have to negotiate with some tricky operators to maintain his authority.

Benjamin Netanyahu and wife Sara Netanyahu greet supporters at an election night event for the Likud party on November 1, 2022 in Jerusalem (Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images)

Benjamin Netanyahu and wife Sara Netanyahu greeting supporters at an election night event for the Likud party on November 1, 2022 in Jerusalem (Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images)

The most controversial kingmaker among them is undoubtedly Itamar Ben-Gvir. The lawyer and leader of the Kahanist “Jewish Power” party was made joint leader of the Religious Zionist pact electoral pact that secured 15 seats.

The 46-year-old, who is said to covet the security brief in the new cabinet, has advocated for the expulsion of Arab-Israelis who “are not loyal” to the state and his party supports the deportation of "Arab extremists" regardless of citizenship, including Party Joint List chairman Ayman Odeh, and the Neturei Karta Jewish anti-zionist sect.

As a teenager, Mr Ben-Gvir boasted about stealing the badge off then-prime minister Yitzhak Rabin’s car. Just weeks later, on this day in 1995, the centre-left statesman was assassinated by a far-right extremist. 

Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich campaign ahead of the 1 November 2022 election (GIL COHEN-MAGEN/AFP via Getty Images)

Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich campaign ahead of the 1 November 2022 election (GIL COHEN-MAGEN/AFP via Getty Images)

His bedfellow Bezalel Smotrich has an equally rocky record, having attracted criticism from Naftali Bennett in 2016 after tweeting his support for the separation of Arab and Jewish women in maternity facilities.

Just last year he garnered backlash for claiming “Ben Gurion should have finished the job” by removing all Israeli Arabs from Israel during the founding of the state, and he has supported the reform of Israel’s judicial system to make it more religious.

This duo’s prominence in the upcoming coalition will surely test the durability of Israel's thriving bonds with the United Arab Emirates and provoke some tense conversations with western leaders. 

For now, however, Israel’s strong economic and political ties with the rest of the world look sturdy enough to survive such controversies, at least where the UK is concerned.

West Bank clashes continue

Just a short drive away from the political action in Jerusalem, the West Bank continues to experience one of its worst spates of unrest since 2015.

On Saturday night an Israeli man was killed and four other people were injured after a Palestinian opened fire on a Jewish father and son in a Palestinian-owned corner shop near the entrance to the small Jewish area of Givat Ha’Avot in Hebron.

Israeli mourners attend the funeral of Ronen Hanania in Jerusalem on October 30, 2022, after a shooting in Hebron that left one Israeli dead and wounded four others (Photo by Menahem KAHANA / AFP)

Israeli mourners attend the funeral of Ronen Hanania in Jerusalem on October 30, 2022, after a shooting in Hebron that left one Israeli dead and wounded four others (Photo by Menahem KAHANA / AFP)

The terrorist was a Hamas member whose brother was released from jail in Israel following the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner swap.

The attack prompted Defence Minister Benny Gantz to call emergency talks with senior officials while Prime Minister Yair Lapid stressed that “Terror won’t defeat us, we’ll take strong action.”

Videos soon emerged of groups celebrating the brutal attack in Ibn Rushd square.

A 13-year-old Israeli girl was also shot in the head under unclear circumstances in , Kiryat Arba, while a stabbing attack in Jerusalem’s Old City on Thursday saw three police officers wounded.

A slew of Palestinian attacks that caused 19 deaths prompted a renewed anti-terror push earlier this year, resulting in more than 2000 arrests and 125 plus Palestinian deaths many following armed clashes with security forces. 

With Mr Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition remaining keen on West Bank annexation, it tensions could well continue to spiral.

Lebanon border deal reaches breakthrough?

Israel’s landmark maritime deal with Lebanon may well survive this week’s political tide change, despite Mr Netanyahu's vows to “neutralise” the deal.

Last week Israel’s High Court of Justice rejected petitions against the deal which would open up lucrative offshore gas extraction to Lebanon, despite it technically remaining at war with Israel.

The agreement’s backers say it will usher in a new dawn of regional stability by permitting Lebanon to construct its own gas platform.

Israel

Israel's Foreign Ministry political director Aliza Bin Noun delivers a statement at the border Rosh HaNikra crossing in northern Israel, known as Ras al-Naqura in Lebanon, following the signature of a maritime border deal between the two countries (Photo by JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

Both Lebanon's caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati and U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein said this week that the deal will be ratified whatever the outcome of the election.

Critics argue the agreement is a win for the Shia militant faction Hezbollah which wields significant power in Lebanon and has threatened to attack should any gas extraction begin before a maritime boundary is agreed. 

Meanwhile, there are zero guarantees tensions with Hezbollah would dissipate in the event of the deal being sealed, and any benefits to the crisis-ridden Lebanese economy will not materialise in the immediate term.