On Sunday night, thousands of supporters of Israel’s dwindling opposition held a protest in Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square, making sure to keep the requisite two metres of social distance from each other. They could protect themselves from the virus, but the pandemic was about to end their hopes for changing the government.
Benny Gantz spent over a year running his campaign, through three elections, on the promise that under no circumstances would he serve in a government led by a man facing criminal charges.
On Monday evening, he signed a coalition agreement with that same man, Benjamin Netanyahu, promising to serve with him for the next three years, no matter what.
Mr Gantz is not the first politician to renege on his election promises. And in his case, he can argue that a global pandemic changes matters. He could also add that since members of his own party refused to support a government led by him if it was also to be supported by the Arab Israeli parliamentarians of the Joint List, he had no alternative except to consign Israel to a fourth consecutive election. The last distraction Israel needs is yet another one of those.
But those arguments are now a matter for history, as he has signed the agreement between Likud and the shrunken Blue & White to form a “national emergency unity government” together.
For the next 18 months, Mr Gantz is to serve as deputy prime minister, and defence minster as well, then swap places with Mr Netanyahu. Israelis seem relieved that the political deadlock is over: in one poll, 62 per cent supported the new government.
But only 31 per cent believed Mr Netanyahu would indeed make way for his deputy at the end of 2021.
A stable government will finally be able to pass a new state budget, which will include many additional billions of shekels to help over a million newly unemployed and tens of thousands of small and large businesses teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
It could also put together a coherent exit strategy from the partial lockdown Israel has been under for nearly seven weeks now, balancing the public health risks with the damage to the economy. But will it be a stable government?
The prime minister and his new deputy, who both have the right to veto any piece of legislation or major policy, could hardly be starting at a lower-point.
Over the past year, Mr Netanyahu’s proxies have smeared Mr Gantz as a traitorous danger to the national security and a mentally unstable pervert. Blue & White’s campaign, on the other hand likened Mr Netanyahu to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Now they have to spend the next three years working closely together, essentially as co-premiers.
There are three major ticking bombs which could blow up their partnership. The first is Mr Netanyahu’s trial for bribery and fraud, which is now scheduled to start on May 24. Mr Gantz is now committed to serving alongside him until he is convicted, if that happen, and has exhausted all avenues of appeal.
But what if the details that emerge in court, or new investigations being considered by the police, are simply too damning? And what if Mr Netanyahu, who no longer controls the Justice Ministry — it will be held by Blue & White — but retains the power to veto senior appointments in the legal establishment, tries to sabotage the case against him?
The next explosion waiting to happen is the debate over annexation of parts of the West Bank. Under the coalition agreement’s terms, this is scheduled to begin in July. Mr Gantz opposes a unilateral annexation that could result in a wave of violence and major damage to Israel’s relationships with moderate Arab regimes.
But the right wing knows that it may have a unique opportunity, as long as Mr Trump is still in the White House, to fulfill its dreams of a Greater Land of Israel.
And even if those bombs fail to derail the new government, there is the matter of the rotation between the two leaders. The coalition agreement makes it very hard for Mr Netanyahu to avoid changing places with Mr Gantz, but he may still find a loophole or try to dissolve the Knesset and go for elections then. And even if he does become Mr Gantz’s deputy, he will still be prime minister in all but name, since he will continue to command the allegiance of nearly three-quarters of the coalition’s MKs. A recipe for combustion if the two men can’t find a way to work well with each other.
There is, however, reason to believe they will defy expectations and do so. Mr Gantz has now proven that he lacks the burning desire to become Israel’s ultimate leader. And Mr Netanyahu has proven adept in the past to working well with junior partners who don’t pose a real threat.
