A new relationship with Lebanon: Can Israel hope for a more peaceful future?

Unit 8200, Israel’s elite signals intelligence unit, intercepted conversations between top Hezbollah leaders, including Nasrallah himself, in which they admitted – just days before Nasrallah was killed – that the pager operation had traumatised them and severely damaged the morale of the movement.

“Lebanon is at a crossroads,” said Orna Mizrahi, a senior research fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Mizrahi, a former lieutenant colonel in military intelligence, told the JC that, for the first time in nearly two decades, Lebanon’s government was making a serious effort to reclaim sovereignty over its entire territory.

Mizrahi attributes this shift largely to Hezbollah’s defeats at the hands of Israel, highlighting three key factors: first, war fatigue – many Lebanese, including Hezbollah’s traditional Shiite supporters, are exhausted by the war, which has left thousands of homes destroyed and displaced more than 20 per cent of the population, over one million people.

Second, Iran, Hezbollah’s primary sponsor, suffered a major setback by losing its most powerful regional proxy, weakening Tehran’s influence in Lebanon and the broader Middle East.

And last, regime change in Syria. The fall of the pro-Iranian Assad regime has cut Hezbollah off from a crucial supply line of weapons, training and funding. The Assad dynasty — father and son — ruled Syria for over fifty years as part of the Alawite sect, which has religious ties to Shiite Islam.

Syria is now ruled by Ahmad al-Shara, a radical Sunni leader with a history of ties to ISIS. During the Syrian civil war, he was designated a top terrorist by the US and other Western countries. His hostility toward Hezbollah and Iran, as well as his call for foreign actors to leave Syria, has further isolated Hezbollah.

Mizrahi also points to additional developments strengthening Israel’s efforts to marginalise Hezbollah’s influence. The new Lebanese government has blocked Iranian supply flights that previously transported weapons and money to Beirut’s international airport.

Meanwhile, Ahmad al-Shara has intensified efforts to prevent Iranian arms smuggling via Syria, increasing surveillance of the border with Lebanon.

Following its military defeat, Hezbollah was forced to accept a US-brokered ceasefire in December 2024. Under the agreement Israel maintains a military presence in five strategic posts near the border to protect its rural and urban communities, enabling a slow return of displaced residents to their homes. Hezbollah, despite its initial resistance, joined other political parties in confirming the new Lebanese president, General Joseph Aoun.

Aoun, a Christian Maronite who studied at a US military school, has strong ties to Washington. As president, he has weakened Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon’s government. The group also lost its veto power.

Israeli intelligence has secretly engaged with General Aoun and reached out to key Lebanese factions, including the Druze, Sunni Muslims, Greek Orthodox, and, most importantly, the Christian Maronites. The Maronites, an Eastern Catholic Church in full communion with the Vatican, remain a crucial political force in Lebanon.

Israel’s current policy mirrors its intelligence cooperation with the Maronites in the 1950s, which lasted until the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. At that time, Israel and the Maronite leadership shared a common goal: uprooting the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which had established a state within a state in Lebanon and was using it as a base to launch rocket attacks on Israeli border communities.

Israel successfully expelled PLO leader Yasser Arafat and thousands of his guerrilla fighters to Tunisia. However, their removal paved the way for the emergence of Hezbollah, a more determined and lethal force created by Iran in the early 1980s as part of its broader goal of exporting the Shiite revolution.

“Hezbollah’s vision, despite its defeat by Israel, has not changed,” says Dror Doron, a Lebanon and Iran expert who spent 15 years working for Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office. Doron, now an analyst with the New York-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), points to the massive turnout at Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral in Beirut this month. Nearly six months after his death, hundreds of thousands of Shiite Lebanese flooded the streets, chanting “Death to Israel”.

The high-profile funeral, which reportedly cost $60 million, was attended by a senior Iranian official. “It was an impressive show of force, signalling that Hezbollah has not abandoned its aspirations to solidify its foothold in Lebanon,” Doron adds.

Orna Mizrahi agreed: “Hezbollah has no intention of disappearing.”

Under the ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah is required to disarm and transition into a political, economic and social organisation. However, experts believe this is highly unlikely.

“Hezbollah’s armed wing is an essential part of its identity,” stressed Doron. “The group’s flag literally translates to ‘The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon’. If Hezbollah disarms, it ceases to be a resistance organisation — it ceases to be Hezbollah as we know it.”

The group still commands an estimated 50,000 well-trained fighters and retains the ability to destabilise Lebanon if it feels cornered.

Doron believes that while Hezbollah may domestically adopt a temporary policy of tactical retreat, any serious threat to its core interests — such as forced disarmament or a permanent crackdown on Iranian financial support —will likely lead to renewed confrontation. He points to the recent riots near Beirut airport, organised by Hezbollah, as a warning.

Israel is well aware of these risks. Its troops remain stationed in southern Lebanon with no plans to withdraw soon. Israeli jets continue to patrol Lebanese airspace and Mossad and Military Intelligence maintain a close watch on Hezbollah’s movements.

So far, Israel’s strategy has US backing. However, its cabinet are wary of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable and capricious foreign policy. They fear that his emphasis on “peace on earth” could lead to pressure on Israel to compromise.

A minor step in that direction has already occurred: the US recently pressured Netanyahu — despite his wishes and previous declarations — to begin border negotiations with Lebanon, a long-standing Hezbollah demand. These talks, mediated by a US general, the United Nations and France, focus on minor territorial disputes.

Any attempt to formalise Israeli-Lebanese diplomatic relations would likely be rejected by Hezbollah, triggering internal political turmoil. “This is not President Aoun’s priority,” Doron explained. “His government is focused on Lebanon’s deep economic and social crisis.”

For now, Mizrahi believes Hezbollah will continue exercising “restraint” and “containment” in response to Israeli military actions, including airstrikes targeting its rearmament efforts.

All in all, Israeli intelligence predicts that Lebanon and Hezbollah will maintain the ceasefire in the foreseeable future — but little more than that.

​

Yossi Melman is co author of Spies Against Armageddon