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Hamas’s ‘impossible’ casualty figures imply zero male civilians have been killed in Gaza, say data scientists

More experts show how the Hamas claim that 70 per cent of casualties are women and children is ‘statistically impossible’

March 27, 2024 17:37
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More than half of the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed since October 7 (Photo: Jack Guez/AFP)
3 min read

A Gaza Ministry of Health claim that 70 per cent of all casualties from the ongoing conflict are women and children – a figure widely cited in the West including in a BBC factcheck last month – is “statistically impossible”, according to a new report.

As recently as 29 February, Gaza’s Ministry of Health announced that the ongoing war has resulted in 30,022 Gazan casualties, 70 per cent of whom are women and children. The ministry has regularly claimed in reports that a steady 70 per cent of all deaths are women and children, going as far back as 11 December, 2023.

The new report, compiled by economist and population models expert Tom Simpson, biomathematician Lewi Stone and international law expert Gregory Rose, was published on fathomjournal.org and has called the figures released by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry “not reliable at all”.

It follows other reports, including one by statistician Abraham Wyner earlier this month, which have also cast doubt on the figures coming out of Gaza.