Hezbollah, the self-professed “party of God”, defines itself in terms of overwhelming strength and military conquest. Its objectives, as laid out by its founders and reiterated many times by its leadership since then, focus upon expelling the influence of non-Islamic powers, specifically the United States and France, from Lebanon, and conquering Israel, which it envisages as a vanguard imperialism in the region.
Armed, trained, and financed at a cost of $700 million per year by the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Centre for Strategic & International Studies estimated Hezbollah to be the best-armed non-state actor in the world in 2018. Hezbollah is considered the crown jewel in the Axis of Resistance, the theocratic and anti-Israel power block that the Islamic Republic has sought to build and unify in recent decades.
During the first months of the post-October 7 war, Hezbollah flexed its strength in support of Hamas in Gaza, firing thousands of missiles into Israel, resulting in evacuations of over 60,000 civilians from the north of the country.
But now? Following an undercover operation where Israel remotely detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, Israel has obliterated its entire command structure in less than two weeks, killing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, as well at least seven high-ranking military commanders. This came on top of the assassinations of Hamas leaders Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh.
Above all else, this signifies a major turnaround in the conflict. On October 7 last year, following a series of Israeli intelligence failures, Hamas and some of their fellow ideological travellers were able to break through Israeli security and perpetrate a massacre of civilians in their homes and at a music festival.
Hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas saw October 7 to be a sign of a receding Israel that might eventually be pushed into the sea by a sufficient quantity of "Islamic resistance", which is why Hamas leaders like Khaled Meshal stated that Hamas' strategy was to repeat the massacre again and again until Israel was destroyed, and Palestinians would be able to claim the entire land between the river and the sea. In the days and weeks after October 7th, social media was thronging with supporters of Hamas and Iran's theocratic agenda cheering for what they saw as the greatest anti-Zionist victory of their lifetimes.
But the war of the past year, culminating in Israel's decisive decapitation of Hezbollah in recent weeks, has flipped the picture upside down, and the Islamic Republic's ambitions of dismantling Israel and implementing a regional Islamic theocracy are crumbling like an abandoned city in the desert. Hamas and Hezbollah supporters are disgruntled and downtrodden, more likely to be focusing their efforts on accusing Israel of foul play in the conflict than hanging onto any hope of an overall military victory.
In other words, it is becoming clearer and clearer that Hezbollah — even with the backing of Khamenei and his generals in Iran — blow for blow cannot compete with the strength of Israel. "Islamic resistance", as defined by Hamas and Hezbollah, is ultimately and above all else a contest of physical, mental, and material strength. The notion simply is that the "Islamic resistance" is stronger than Israel and will eventually defeat Israel in combat, conquer the land and force the Jewish people to either accept Islamic-theocratic rule or leave.
But if Hamas and Hezbollah are unable to defeat Israel then what is their purpose? They are flailing, and to me, it looks like they are doing nothing but bringing misery, defeat, and suffering down onto the heads of the innocent Palestinian and Lebanese people who are suffering greatly in this war in Gaza and Southern Lebanon.
The collapse of Hezbollah has been a failure of intelligence. The information required to strike Nasrallah and other top Hezbollah military figures required major leaks and breaches. Who are the moles leaking sensitive information to Israel? The new Hezbollah leadership, as well as the leadership in Iran, will be terrified of these questions. And these fears will only grow if more leaders go the way of Hassan Nasrallah, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh.
In the end, there are other and better options for Palestinians and Lebanese. How about coexistence with Israel? How about working together towards building a new regional system around cooperation, trade, and mutual benefit? We already have a basis for this in the Abraham Accords, and we can expand these to include more countries, including Lebanon, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia.
It is high time for a better living situation for Palestinians and Lebanese, and for the region. The national aspirations of Palestinians and freedom and prosperity of Lebanese people should not be tied to the fate of a corrupt, theocratic regime like the Islamic Republic of Iranian. Nor should they be tied to the fate of a sectarian militia like Hezbollah who on the one hand may provide social services to ordinary Lebanese, but also continue to drag them into a conflict with Israel. Palestinian and Lebanese civilians deserve to have a good and normal life, just like people in Israel, Europe, America, or anywhere.
After the storm of war will come a calm. It is crucial for the peaceful voices in the region who dream of modernisation and a normal life for Muslims, Jews, and Christians and all indigenous peoples to take the lead and build a brighter future.
