For months, polls remained incredibly tight. Americans were divided between those who felt burned by Biden-Harris administration policies and those who couldn’t stomach another term of Donald Trump. That divide carried over into the Jewish community.
Within the American Jewish community, October 7 and its aftermath added another wrinkle. American Jews have interpreted President Biden’s “ironclad” support for Israel differently since October 7, but there’s been more of a consensus that Kamala Harris is more hostile. Harris made a conscious effort to publicly criticise Israel and make supportive comments about anti-Israel protesters. She publicly warned Israelis not to go into Rafah, and she made a point of skipping Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to Congress for a sorority event.
Meanwhile, she’s never agreed to meet with Jewish university students about campus antisemitism — and according to recent Harvard graduate Shabbos Kestenbaum, they’ve asked her.
The Biden-Harris administration’s reaction to Israel’s security emergency and surging domestic antisemitism, along with their weakness toward the Iranian regime, have clearly prompted some members of the Jewish community to rethink their traditional voting loyalties.
According to voter data analysis by Fox News, Harris won 66 per cent of Jewish voters, with Trump taking 32 per cent. Sam Markstein, spokesperson for the Republican Jewish Coalition, told me this would make 2024 the “worst presidential performance for a Democrat since [Michael] Dukakis” in 1988. Noting that numbers could move overnight, Markstein noted a “shift of 16 per cent to Trump from 2020,” in Arizona, a “shift of 42 per cent to Trump from 2020” in Nevada, and a “shift of 4 per cent to Trump from 2020” in Pennsylvania.
Add to that, the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon that messed up polls in 2016 still exists in the non-Orthodox Jewish community (about 90 per cent of American Jews). I wouldn't be surprised if there are actually fewer Harris voters than what Jews report to pollsters.
In populous New York, home to the nation’s largest Jewish community and the largest Orthodox Jewish community, Fox News reported that 45 per cent of New York's Jews voted for Trump. That figure, Markstein told me, “is historic, on pace with Zeldin from 2022.” Zeldin is the Jewish Republican who ran for governor of New York two years ago.
A Trump win will disappoint the Iranian regime, which meddled in this election to help Harris’ campaign. It will mean a friend in the White House for Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and an end to arms embargo threats. It also means an executive branch that will be more aggressive in tackling antisemitism on college campuses and elsewhere. Available levers at the Departments of Justice and Education might finally be used (again) to enforce existing laws.
Jewish voters concerned that Senate Democrats — led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, another Jew from New York — haven’t taken antisemitism seriously should feel buoyed. By the early hours of the morning, Republicans had recaptured control of the Senate. So Schumer will rejoin the minority. And given the disparity in how the Republican controlled House of Representatives and the Democratic controlled Senate have treated resurgent antisemitism this past year, there’s reason to believe that bills like the Antisemitism Awareness Act might finally get the vote Schumer’s been blocking.
Melissa Langsam Braunstein is a writer based in the Washington DC area
@slowhoneybee
